wild action @ the new morongo palm springs, 1 hand...

limon · #1 12-03-2004, 08:27 PM

5-10 nl, game is so nutty mike caro and i are the only sane ones.
oh and an old man super rock who im in this hand with. sooooo...we all have $1000ish, i raise to 30 w/KK utg and a dude who raises at least 75% of the time makes it 60, now the old man super rock makes it 250. normally this is AA or KK 100% but even the old man knows the 60 rasie was bullshit so im trying to convince myself hed put in 250 with JJ,QQ,AK. I decide a re-raise lets them off too easy here and opt for a call. crazy guy now folds. flop is Qc9d8d. i decide i dont want to give a free card to ak or jj and bet out 250. the old dude hems and haws for a while a calls. a dude to his left says "im all in" as a joke and the old dude nearly craps his depends before hes sees the guy has no hand and is f'ing around. i took this to mean old dude was really scared and wasnt acting with a set of queens, i put him on AQ. turn is a blank I move in old dude goes in the tank again and calls.

soooo...he has AA and takes it down, im beating myself up for this one was there a significantly better line?

johnsy · #2 12-03-2004, 08:35 PM

trust your 1st instinct............. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]...........u knew what he had, u just chose to not listen.............we all do it from time 2 time

coltrane · #3 12-03-2004, 08:49 PM

once you make the preflop call, it doesn't seem like there's enough left in your stack (relative to the pot) to gain information - particularly since you're out of position......

flop is a tough spot for you because once the old man calls your flop bet, I think you're toast.....see I believe there's less of a chance than you did that he holds AQ or JJ with that kind of preflop raise (given your description of this player).....he's got aces, AK, or QQ to me and with a queen-high flop, there's only one of those hands that you beat.......is giving a free card to AK that bad?.....maybe, but if that's the case, why not just move in on the flop and put the man to a tough decision.....I don't think that there's a lesser made hand that you beat that he could hold and call you with, and if he's got AK he's not calling anything anyway - so why not try to move him off aces if he's got'em......(check-raising all-in was also something I was gonna suggest but of course you run the risk of him checking behind and getting a free one with AK).....

lowroller · #4 12-04-2004, 01:46 PM

How is the new room at Morongo? I haven't made it out there yet, but have been thinking about checking it out.

I've been thinking alot about hands like these lately. I am new to NL, and have been worried about exactly this type of situation.

Firstly, does anyone know what the specific odds are of someone having AA while you hold KK?

Second, does it help to think in terms of how many ways/combinations an opponent can have a hand that will beat you in a certain situation? For instance, in this hand you are thinking he could hold AA, AK, AQ, and QQ (later ruled out).

It seems to me (with this flop and you holding KK) that there are 12 ways to have AA, 8 ways to have AK, and 12 ways to have AQ (6 ways to have QQ, but that is out the window). So there are 12 ways that beat you and 20 that don't (plus all the others that he is most likely not holding).

Like I said, I am new to NL. Does this kind of information/thinking help the decision making process in this type of close situation?

Thanks and Good Luck!

theBruiser500 · #5 12-04-2004, 04:57 PM

Sounds like preflop you are rationalizing your call. How creative/imaginative is a "super rock" really going to be, when it comes down to it?

bunky9590 · #6 12-04-2004, 05:32 PM

Hey C.

[ QUOTE ]
maybe, but if that's the case, why not just move in on the flop and put the man to a tough decision.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its a good idea to not try to make people lay down Aces. rarely works.

bunky9590 · #7 12-04-2004, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
game is so nutty mike caro and i are the only sane ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like a great game.

[ QUOTE ]
i raise to 30 w/KK utg

[/ QUOTE ]

$30.00 the standard? I suppose you were setting the loosey up for a whammo reraise.

[ QUOTE ]
now the old man super rock makes it 250. normally this is AA or KK 100%

[/ QUOTE ]

is the super rock really that predictable? Even if the second raise was bullshit, I rarely find (even online) that the third raise is anything less than KK if they are a tard, If they are a rock it usually Aces, not Kings, Aces.

[ QUOTE ]
soooo...he has AA and takes it down, im beating myself up for this one was there a significantly better line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like with your description of the super rock, If i'm gonna fold KK in a situation its out of a position against a super rock for $230.00 more with a dime behind. Having him on a hand where I'm either tied or stomped.

I dunno, you have way more experience than I do cheif, but looked like you were reaching for a reason to call PF and looking for a way to win it after the flop. What is the probablity that a super rock folds Aces post flop on that board?

kidpoker22 · #8 12-04-2004, 05:58 PM

I think though it would be amazingly hard, I would dump it pre-flop. You had the geriatric made correctly. There's NO way he folds the flop if you move in...if you had QQ you would've played it slow. You put yourself in a spot where you had to flop a set to win. It sux when it happens but it does...old men are notoriously rockish.

legend42 · #9 12-04-2004, 06:06 PM

Firstly, does anyone know what the specific odds are of someone having AA while you hold KK?

At a 10-player table, there's about a 1 in 22 chance.

It seems to me (with this flop and you holding KK) that there are 12 ways to have AA

I think you're counting the combinations twice.

Like I said, I am new to NL. Does this kind of information/thinking help the decision making process in this type of close situation?

Yes.

coltrane · #10 12-04-2004, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey C.

I think its a good idea to not try to make people lay down Aces. rarely works.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's certainly true, but if that's the case then:
a) the line is to fold preflop and
b) if there were ever a situation to try it, this might be it - based on description of villain

I'm still not saying it would've worked, but rather offering a counter-line specific to this situation based on range of hands opponent could hold on the flop - as opposed to speaking in generalizations.....