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#1
12-01-2004, 08:40 AM
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AK hits monotone flop, river raise good?
After 25 hands, opp's PT stats: VP$IP is 60% (15/25) PFR is 4% (1/25)
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls. Flop: (9 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls. <font color="blue">It's HU and since he only calls I'll assume he doesn't have a flush yet.... </font> Turn: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls. <font color="blue">Now I'm POSITIVE he doesn't have it, unless he's setting me up, but he's a fish, so unlikely... </font> River: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font> <font color="blue">I raised him on the flop and he went into calldown mode until the 4th diamond pops up. I figure he has a diamond and the only way to take it down is to make him think I have a better one. Acceptable play? Then again he's betting into the aggressor, and he's passive, so it was probably a dumb move.. </font> 
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#2
12-01-2004, 08:44 AM
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Re: AK hits monotone flop, river raise good?
i don't think any typical party .50/1.00 player who is capable of value betting a small diamond here is going to fold one to a raise either.
maybe against a thinking player, but you gave no indication of what he was.
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#5
12-01-2004, 11:48 AM
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Re: AK hits monotone flop, river raise good?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is folding here for 1 bet. I call down. Folding is 2nd, raising 3rd. [/ QUOTE ] At this point I think you're probably right.. NOW I have a second part to this question, regarding the rest of the river: River: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero folds. Crap, well at least now I KNOW he has the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and probably a good one too... So here's the Q: If I was gonna fold to the 3bet, should I have just called his 1st bet? Seems I was gonna lose anyway, so I coulda saved myself 1BB and saw the SD. So if I think it's better than 50/50 that he doesn't have a diamond I should raise this right? Or should I practically assume that anyone making it to the river and betting into me has a big diamond and was on the draw? I'm having trouble deciding how to measure the odds of him holding a diamond he likes before getting 3bet.. Ie the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] wouldn't be an easy bet to make, and even a fish certainly wouldn't 3bet it.. And the fold is obviously correct, even at 14.5:1 right?
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#6
12-01-2004, 12:02 PM
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Re: AK hits monotone flop, river raise good?
Yeah, I think you can safely fold this one now. This is a horrible leak in my game, getting rivered with the flush or a crap 2 pair after building a nice pot. I know I would have called him when he bet, without a read he could be bluffing but I highly doubt it. He would call your raise anyway even if he had the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], that is what they do. I don't think you win this pot enough times to where a raise works, especially at this level.
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#7
12-01-2004, 12:03 PM
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Re: AK hits monotone flop, river raise good?
[ QUOTE ]
If I was gonna fold to the 3bet, should I have just called his 1st bet? [/ QUOTE ] I think so [ QUOTE ] So if I think it's better than 50/50 that he doesn't have a diamond I should raise this right? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but what hand are you putting him on that doesn't include a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? [ QUOTE ] And the fold is obviously correct, even at 14.5:1 right? [/ QUOTE ] I think so...you hate folding for 1 more bet HU at 14.5:1, but you've kind of 'given yourself' these odds with the raise/3-bet.
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