Follow up to 300BB Mandate question

[jmgambler]

Dear All,

Read All the posts on that 300BB mandate and am still playing at $2/$4 and am still steadily going up.... One thing that concerns me is:

Based on Odds etc, Am I due for a serious downturn of 100BB+ etc?

Have I just been lucky for the past few thousand hands?


Regards David

[ode]

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Based on Odds etc, Am I due for a serious downturn of 100BB+ etc?


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At some point, very likely yes.

/ode

[AngryCola]

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Based on Odds etc, Am I due for a serious downturn of 100BB+ etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are never really "due". It's not any more likely to occur after you have been running good for awhile. It might happen or it might not. Odds don't dictate that you must start running bad after a long streak of running good.

When you play roulette, just becasue the ball has landed on black 30 times in a row doesn't make it any more likely that it will land on red the next time. I don't play the game, but I've always found this to be a good analogy.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I think its highly likely you will experience a 100BB downswing at some stage. Hopefully you won't experience a 300BB one, although some posters on here have done so.

The usual cause is a combination of being generally card dead, big hands getting cracked on the few occasions that you get them, and a succession of missed draws. It doesn't take too long for this fantastic combo to add up to 100BB!!

Sheriff

[AngryCola]

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I think its highly likely you will experience a 100BB downswing at some stage.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true.

But it's not the same as saying he is more likely to hit a downswing because he has been running good recently. I realize you didn't say that, but I think that is what he was asking about.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Yes, its nothing to do with the fact that he's been running good or anything to do with luck 'balancing out', its just statistically likely that a 100BB swing will occur at some stage.

300BB is much less likely, which is why the recommended bankroll is set at that level. However, its still capable of being achieved.

I would estimate that if the long-term players were polled on here almost every one of them would admit to a 100BB swing (and would probably state that this was normal). For 300BB swings I would guess that the figure would be around 25%. I would also imagine that an unlucky few have gone through 500BB+ at some stage too.

Sheriff

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Based on Odds etc, Am I due for a serious downturn of 100BB+ etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are never really "due". It's not any more likely to occur after you have been running good for awhile. It might happen or it might not. Odds don't dictate that you must start running bad after a long streak of running good.

When you play roulette, just becasue the ball has landed on black 30 times in a row doesn't make it any more likely that it will land on red the next time. I don't play the game, but I've always found this to be a good analogy.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a good analogy. As a matter of fact if lacking any other information, it is more likely that the ball will land on black again. Why? Because there is a probability (albeit small) that there is something wrong with the table.

To transfer this on your poker play, it means that according to your playing style/ cabability a 100BB downswing could be less likely than for other players.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

there is no such thing as being "due" for anything. you are just as equally likely to get AA as anybody else, even if you had AA two hands in a row already.

same goes with losing streaks. are they inevitable? yes, but just because you've been running well for x amount of hands doesn't mean hand x+1 is going to the hand that begins the ruin of your bankroll. and the same goes for winning streaks.

if you're a 2bb per hour winner, whether you've won or lost 50bb in the past hour, you will still expect to win 2bb in the next hour.