$5-$10 Hand from last night

[Mackerel]

$5-$10 B&M. I'm in the CO w/QcJc. UTG (tricky, solid) calls, fold, fold, call, fold, call, I call (at this point, I can put UTG on 2 cards), button folds, SB folds, BB checks. I have just under $2k, UTG has me covered.

$55 pot. Flop Qd 5d 4s

UTG bets $50. Fold, fold, I call, BB folds.

$105 pot. Turn Jd

UTG bets $400. I go in the tank, then push.

Thoughts?

[etizzle]

I dont think I like it. If you're winning, he will almost surely fold. But if he calls, I think you're in bad shape.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
(at this point, I can put UTG on 2 cards)

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
$55 pot. Flop Qd 5d 4s

UTG bets $50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ad 4d?

I agree with the first comment - seems like you'll only be called if you're beat. It seems that you could possibly make your opponent lay down a set here, but did he play it like a set on the flop?

-DB

[creedofhubris]

I really don't like pushing here... It's a strong move if you can put him on a draw, or if you think he will call your allin with AA/KK/54. (He may be on a draw, but he will fold AA/KK and most likely 54 to your all-in if he's solid.)

I think calling is better than raising, and folding isn't terrible.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
at this point, I can put UTG on 2 cards

[/ QUOTE ]

I love that comment. Can you be that sure?

I dont like your push at all. It seems obvious that he has a big hand. I dont see him making this play with a hand like A,Q. If he has a set, why would he try and push you off with a 4x bet on a small pot. My guess is that he turned a flush and he is setting you up to take your entire stack.

I think it is marginal between a call and a fold, depending on the player.

[Mackerel]

Yeah, you guys all pretty much nailed my thoughts after-the-fact exactly. UTG called and turned over 7d6d. I don't know why I posted this, I guess I was just mad at myself and wanted some abuse for my stupidity.

I've been running pretty well in this game, but this move was major brain lock and cost me a decent little win. For some reason, the overbet got it into my head that he was trying to move me out with a draw (something like AdQh maybe). He's more than capable of a move like that, but he's not calling unless I'm beat.

I'm still a little torn between calling the overbet and deciding on the river how to proceed, or just folding. Folding seems a little weak, but I think I'm leaning that way. Anybody like a pot-sized info raise on the flop? At least, that might've bought me a clue (needed one on this hand, obviously) so I could've gotten away. Sometimes I think I should just take up gin rummy. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Thanks for the responses.

Mack

[Robk]

No limit holdem is in some situations an easy game to play, because of the large amount of information your opponent's actions reveal. In this situation your opponent limped UTG. When he bets on the flop, the sheer number of players tells you that he is not bluffing. Combining this information with reasonable UTG limping standards, his hand range on the flop is approximately AQ, KQ, QJ, AA, KK, QQ, 55, 44, 54, 76, and flush draws. The first point is that (including all Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and two [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] > 9 combinations) you're about a 2.3: 1 dog against this hand range (played to the river). While you're receiving 2.1:1 odds from the pot on the flop, you have to consider your effective odds, which aren't favorable. That's because he will keep betting with his hands which have you badly beaten. When he bets the hand through (say with a hand like AQ) your pot odds appoach even money, making calling down an expensive error.

That doesn't mean that calling the flop is an automatic error, because your position can give you the opportunity to make a good turn decision. If your opponent bets the turn I think you have a clear fold because, as I argued earlier, you can't call the hand down. This means that calling the flop was a very poor decision if he will bet an unimproved flush draw a second time. However if he will check his flush draws, you can then bet and take the pot away from him (or force him into calling with no implied odds). But in this situation, flush draws alone aren't likely enough to make this a profitable enterprise. For the hand range I suggested, he'll have a draw about 27% of the time. That means that on the turn, he'll have a missed draw about 22% of the time. While you also you have 5 outs to improve, they won't always be good. A quick estimate is that you have an average of about 3 good outs. This means that you'll have the best hand on the turn about .22+.73*(.06) = 26% of the time. (Note I've neglected his ace overcard outs). So a quick look at the odds suggests you're a 3:1 dog on the turn, but have accepted 2.1:1 odds to try and win the pot there. So you have significant ground to make up. If he folds a flush draw on the turn, your EV is roughly .25*105 - .75*50 = -$11. If he calls a pot bet with a flush draw on the turn, your EV is .22*(.78*200 -.22*-200) + .04(105) + .74*-50 = 25 + 5 - 37 = -7.

If you exploit him significantly in the situations where you improve (by getting value when ahead and saving when still behind) you can push this towards even (I neglected this entirely, as it's a rare situation anyway). Also if you know he would check a set on the flop, or raise AA/KK preflop, or play many more suited hands, then you can jiggle the numbers somewhat. But I think it's a lost cause. (Also note that 1) if he's good enough to check some non flushdraws on the turn, you do much worse and 2) if you occasionally punt the hand and stick in 2 grand as a big dog, you do much, much worse).

I think raising is a poor play, given the hand composition I suggested. Draws are only about a quarter of his hand range, so you're getting very poor odds on a play. And if he plays back with a big draw, you've essentially thrown away your chips, as you'd be forced to fold.