Flop overbet

BobboFitos · #1 11-27-2004, 07:35 PM

I'm not really happy with the lack of responses to my other hands I played the past week, hopefully this one will be more inspiring. I really didn't know how to proceed...

1/2 NL at Turningstone. Not a tough table except for a few players. One of the best was the Villain for this hand. (Hmm, an occuring theme is that the hands I either played poorly or misplayed were against the solid guys...)

Information: The guy to my right was very aggressive, and raised preflop probably 30 to 35% of the time. (or folded) he would often make pot building raises, or just raises to steal the iniative/button, and it seemed to have worked great for him. Frankly, he was running over the table. Without playing a big pot he had over 350$, and had everyone covered. His chips were really messy, (oddly proportioned stacks) young guy, and kept talking at the table. Really fun guy to have at the table, actually. During our session I was incredibly quiet, but I got a little sick of his mini raises, so I reraised him preflop with K7s, everyone folded, and I showed it. He calmed down a little after that, (he literally raised my blind, button, CO, etc everytime I wanted to play a pot without a raise...) but I think that play stuck in his mind.

For this hand he has me way covered with big stacks of nickels, while I have maybe 180 or 190. Not sure, but it was just under 200.

I'm on the button, he's the CO. 2 limpers to him, he makes it 7 total, (not unusual, he varied his raise from 5 to 10 anytime he entered a pot) I called with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Small blind called, big blind called, the limpers folded. 3 to the flop. (I thought the limpers would call so there would be alot more money in the pot with my suited connector, oh well) It would be raked.

Pot = 23$
8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (Suits COULD be wrong, but I remember having a 3 flush, not like that is really important...)

Small blind checks, (he's a loose/passive player, one of the real soft spots; he either called or folded, I hadn't seen him bet yet, he seemed uninterested in the flop) and Villain looks at his stack, laughs a little, picks up one of his towers, and throws it in without counting it.

After the dealer counts it out, it amounts to 55$. Action is on me. My move...?

I folded, (duh...) but I hadn't seen him do this before, typically he'd underbet the pot on the flop and just pound away, and then make a big bet on the river with a bluff or made hand (he didn't really show too many hands down) hence running over the table. But what does this bet mean? I don't have that much live experience, so his casually tossing in a complete tower of reds against me was weird, and I wondered what it meant. And if anyone would call or raise here. Thanks.

PoBoy321 · #2 11-27-2004, 08:21 PM

Well, of course there's no sense in calling with just a pair of 8s with a 7 a gusthot straight and backdoor flush draw, but if you say that he's frequently bluffing and just pounding at these pots, and then changes his demeanor when he makes this bet, it's gotta set off alarms in your head. In these low stakes games, remember that weakness=strength and strength=weakness. If he's sitting there, avoiding eye contact with you, not talking, acting very sheepish, he's got something and he wants to get called. When he's staring you in the eyes, leaning forward at the table and putting his chips in very forcefully, he's trying to give the impression of strength because he's actually very weak and wants a fold. Better players will realize this and either act exactly the same every time (from the way they sit to where they hold their hands) or act differently regardless of their holdings and will be much harder to read.

soah · #3 11-27-2004, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he makes it 7 total [. . .] I called with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Small blind called, big blind called, the limpers folded. 3 to the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously something wrong... bb folded?

I'm inclined to think that this was a good fold... when a LAG bets bigger than usual it's generally not a bluff, and you can't really beat anything but a bluff. Even if he's just got a flush draw he has probably 15 outs.

I'm a bit conflicted though since you do have nine outs against an overpair. You're about 35% to win against black aces, and 37% to win against red aces. Against bare overcards you would be about 75% to win.

I have virtually no experience playing live but from your description and other things I have read, I can't imagine you're ahead here often enough to justify continuing with this hand.

BigToga · #4 11-27-2004, 08:58 PM

I think a fold was the correct play - heck, he could only have overcards but he's likely going to make you pay on the turn and river to beat him. This is one of those "raise or fold" situations, I think, and you're *really* pushing the envelope if you raise him.

BobboFitos · #5 11-27-2004, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he makes it 7 total [. . .] I called with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Small blind called, big blind called, the limpers folded. 3 to the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously something wrong... bb folded?

I'm inclined to think that this was a good fold... when a LAG bets bigger than usual it's generally not a bluff, and you can't really beat anything but a bluff. Even if he's just got a flush draw he has probably 15 outs.

I'm a bit conflicted though since you do have nine outs against an overpair. You're about 35% to win against black aces, and 37% to win against red aces. Against bare overcards you would be about 75% to win.

I have virtually no experience playing live but from your description and other things I have read, I can't imagine you're ahead here often enough to justify continuing with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought - if I was ahead he probably has redraws, and this big bet set alarms off.

I meant BB folded, because the flop was three handed- thanks for the correction about that.

I wish he would've underbet it there, I wanted to see a turn, so many helpful cards (or I could be out in front) but alas he took down another.

He was pounding so many pots pre and then post flop that I really really wanted to call or raise, but I sorta shook myself and realized, as you said, I can't possibly be ahead often enough here to justify it. Just wanted to post it if someone else has a different idea of what he could have, or if whatever his range was, it was "better than my hand."

creedofhubris · #6 11-28-2004, 02:40 AM

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? That's a hand I might overbet/go bombs away with on this flop, since I don't mind going all-in with it, and I also don't mind taking it down immediately.

BobboFitos · #7 11-28-2004, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? That's a hand I might overbet/go bombs away with on this flop, since I don't mind going all-in with it, and I also don't mind taking it down immediately.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a tight player the As Ks seems reasonable, (AcKc would give him the nut THREE flush, so I assume you mean nut 4 flush...) but this player was so damn loose with his raises I thnk a large % of time he doesn't have a premium hand.

In this particular hand, granted he is making such a big obtuse bet, you could be right. (OR he could have something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I think) I wanted to find out, but instead I saved my money...

Preflop anyone have a problem, btw?

BK_ · #8 12-01-2004, 09:31 AM

fold is very simple. even if he is bluffing, he has your 8 high beat. and making a reraise bluff would be 1. too expenisve and 2. wouldnt work often enough, as he might actually have poket pairs. i wouldnt be suprised for him to show a decent hand or a big draw a large majority of the time. but this doesnt really even matter, because you have a drawing hand and he didnt give you odds to draw

BK_ · #9 12-01-2004, 09:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really happy with the lack of responses to my other hands I played the past week, hopefully this one will be more inspiring.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey, i think the lack of responses can be attributed to the length of the posts. i think most posters browse the hands very quickly and look for a couple to think about, and when they see that reading some of yours will take 5 min, they move on [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

BobboFitos · #10 12-01-2004, 10:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hey, i think the lack of responses can be attributed to the length of the posts. i think most posters browse the hands very quickly and look for a couple to think about, and when they see that reading some of yours will take 5 min, they move on

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, I think you're right =)

Thing is whenever someone posts a quick recap of a hand it gets criticized for brevity... Whereas the flip side (like my posts...) is overkill on reads, feelings, what I ate that day, etc.

I need to find a happy medium.