KK in BB

[Kluddeludde]

Here's a hand I played a couple of minutes ago. The table is generally loose passive, with a couple of very soft spots and two solid players (except me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

Party 5/10

A solid TAG raises UTG+1. All fold to an as of yet unknown button who cold calls. A mediocre (slightly loose, kind of aggressive) SB calls and I 3-bet in BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. 4 to the flop

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (11.4 sb)

SB checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises, button and SB folds and I 3-bet. UTG+1 calls. Turn is

4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.7 bb)

I bet, he calls. River comes

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises, I...?

Should I call? Fold? What range of hands do you put him on? Should I even bet the river to begin with?

Kludde

[JohnShaft]

Well, he's representing AQ pretty clearly.

As for the decision here you can't beat much but a bluff. He's representing a hand that clearly beats you, even if it's as little as AK.

You're getting a very big 13-1 though.

My decision is if I have any doubt about this guys ability to bluff raise the scare card Ace then I'll just have to call getting 13-1. Folding here is also going to get noticed, at least by him. So you could be setting yourself up for some bluff raises.

If I was very sure that he was a pure TAG that wasn't too tricky or bluffy then I think I could force myself to fold. Otherwise no, at 13-1 I call.

I think he has AQ pretty reliably.

[Kluddeludde]

What do you think of check-calling the river? If I'm not sure I can fold to a raise wouldn't you agree that is the best alternative?

Kludde

[JohnShaft]

Klud atm that is my general tendency.

I like checking if:
I wouldn't be sure that he wasn't raising a worse hand, so I couldn't fold the river.
I think he might bluff bet at times
I think he might bet hands I beat

It's the first one of those that gets me in that spot. Folding getting 13-1? I'm not that comfortable with that at Party against someone not well known, and your betting pattern suggests you could well have something like KK, meaning if they think you can fold it you might get bluff raised.

But yeah you should already know if you are calling a raise on the River before you bet as it's impacts the river decision to a large extent.

[The Dude]

Bet the river and fold to the raise. He's not bluffing, and the A obviously helped him. You just can't win on this board, so don't hesitate to fold.

Check-calling the river is no good. The only hand your're going to induce a bluff against is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and he's likely to check behind KQ, which would have called your river bet.

[Tosh]

I think its a clear fold.

[tolbiny]

Why can't you fold to a raise?

[which]

Dude?

Why is ck/calling any worse than betting the river and then folding to a raise?

They both cost one bet? And you get paid by the bluffs, as opposed to folding to possible bluffs?

The reason I ask, if you bet river and you do not have an Ace, will an Ace rag really fold? Since it is unlikely, IMO, what would they call with? It seems if they raise you would be beat, but still lose to bluffs, whereas if you ck/call you see what they play (a benefit) as well as induce some bluffs (a smaller benefit)

I guess I was taught that betting into "only those that can beat you will call/raise" situations are iffy.

I admit I miss out on bets on river though.

which

[The Dude]

No, there are no better hands that will fold to your bet. It's a thin-value bet. KQ will call you on this river. Hell, Party players can be wierd enough to get a call from a medium pocket pair at times.

The question is, are there more hands that call your bet (and lose) that would have checked behind, or hands that will bet (and lose) but would have folded to your bet. I think the answer favors the former.

[JohnShaft]

[ QUOTE ]
The question is, are there more hands that call your bet (and lose) that would have checked behind, or hands that will bet (and lose) but would have folded to your bet. I think the answer favors the former.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the main question I guess. But if the above equation is equal (or even near equal) then check/calling has to be preferable because it eliminates us being raised off the hand (and losing a big pot), as I see it.