Suck it up or re-evaluate?

[SmileyEH]

In about 20 mins I'll have played my 150th $30 SNG on party while 4-tabling....my ROI is an abysmal 10%. I feel as though I've been running absolutely terribly for the last week. On two occasions I had good streaks of ROI over 30% for 30 tourneys or so....rest of it has been hell.

Basically, to everyone who has played the $30's or higher...does this sample seem statisticaly signifigant or should I just suck it up and keep playing.....hoping my numbers will turn around?

At the $20's I had an ROI in the high 20's over about 250 tourneys.

-SmileyEH

[Chief911]

Smiley,

I think there is a significant jump between the 20's and the 30's. But if you dont feel like you are playing well, why not play some other games for a few days. I've found that one of my best tools for being successful has been diversifying my games. I'll play SNG's while I feel fresh, and when I start going cold, I'll go play some limit, or HU, or tournament to get my game back on track.

Hope this helps.

Nick

[tigerite]

Some of the play at the $30s is simply terrible, though. I lost count of the number of fish I faced last night.

[ChrisV]

I'm really talking out of my ass a bit here, because I've played zero twenties and thirties and hardly any fifties. If I were you though, I'd skip the 30 level entirely. You won't believe what a difference starting with 1000 chips makes. (If you're wondering how I know, given I haven't played the 20's and 30's, I used to play the SNGs on Paradise).

[PBaek]

In my opinion you should just keep at it. I have had the same kind of experience this last week or so. I feel I get out draw all the time and can only show a small profit (at $30+3 and $50+5)

Then today for instance it all turns around. I am up about 15 buy-ins in one day - even though I still feel I take my fair share of suck outs.

Actually I had my worst one ever today´:

I raise 3 times BB preflop with AA. I get reraised allin and calls. The guy shows. AQ. The flop is weirdly enough TTT. Turn is Q...and river is Q. What are the odds? lol.

The important thing is that you feel you get in with the best of it most of the times. Then you´ll be fine:-)

Good luck, Peter.

[Irieguy]

You need 150 SNGs just to have an idea of whether you are winning or losing.

You need around 300-500 to know what your ITM% is.

You need 1000 SNGs for the term "ROI" to mean anything at all.

If you are making good decisions and your ITM% is above 38%, then you're fine. But don't concern yourself with your ROI for about a thousand more SNGs.

I know a 30% ROI/42% ITM player at the $33 level who has gone through a stretch of 150 SNGs with a negative ROI. Interestingly, though, his ITM% was still around 40% during that stretch. ITM% is a more stable statistical metric for how well you are playing SNG poker. It's also the most important, IMHO. It's important because you need to really play poorly for it to drop very much... and it's hard to run so badly that you can't at least make the money more often than the jokers playing this game for fun.

The bottom line is: it's too soon to tell, statistically. One thing that isn't discussed much on this forum, though, is the fact that it's relatively easy to tell if you're playing winning or losing poker. Just keep track of your big hands. If your decisions are good, you're good. If they're bad, you're bad.

Play the right way,

Irieguy

[SmileyEH]

Irieguy, my ITM% for this stretch of 150 tournies was 35.8%

This is significant?

-SmileyEH

[SuitedSixes]

Great post, Irieguy. On the money as always!

[stupidsucker]

I feel my game is pretty good at the 30s and my roi is only about 25% after 1.5k tourneys.

I have deep stretches of bad runs. My roi for the last 500 is 20%.

Keep at it and your roi shoudl get better, if it doesnt reach at least 20% after 1k then maybe step back down to the 20s for a while, but I dont think that is needed either unless bankroll is at stake.

[captZEEbo1]

I've played a total of about 350 $20 sngs. At about the 250 point, my ROI was around 50%. Then in the last 90 games or so, I actually had a negative ROI. This can be attributed to a few different things, but bad runs do occur. Hang in there. You might need to reevaluate your game. Sample sizes of 30 games are VERY insignificant though. For instance, in 30 games, if you change one 1st to a 4th, your ROI will drop from 51% to 36% or 36% to 21%. So just think about getting unlucky on the bubble. If you push AA, get called by JJ, and get sucked out, that can affect your 30-game-ROI by 15%. So in conclusion, 30 games is pretty insignificant.