Flopped Set, Turned Full House, Fold River??

[spydog]

After 2 orbits with the villian, he appears to be some version of a TAG. I think I have no choice but to fold this river. How about the turn...can I even call this against a TAG?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ......

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I have no choice but to fold this river. How about the turn...can I even call this against a TAG?

[/ QUOTE ]
How do you think villian would play AQs?

[pokerkai]

Call the river, youll run into QT and an overplayed flush draw often enough.

[pistol78]

[ QUOTE ]
Call the river, youll run into QT and an overplayed flush draw often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

He siad the guy is a Tag. Do you think a Tag would 3-bet preflop with QT?

[pokerkai]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call the river, youll run into QT and an overplayed flush draw often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

He siad the guy is a Tag. Do you think a Tag would 3-bet preflop with QT?

[/ QUOTE ]

ahhh yes, i missed the preflop 3bet

[sthief09]

I'd be REALLY tempted to let it go on the turn. the river fold is easy

[PizzaAggie]

I am not so sure that this is an easy fold. Yes, it is obvious that your JJ is not good, but there are 16.5 big bets in the pot. I remember reading that it is better to make a mistake and call when you know you are beaten than to not call and lose a huge pot. I would call, but I would not like it. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] I do agree that I would have been more likely to fold on the turn as it appears as if the SB was playing AA, KK or AK (of course by the river we can rule out AA.)

[StellarWind]

On the turn I think AQ and the jack out are enough hope to call this down.

On the river it's over.

Note that you have an automatic turn call at a jackpot table. You are drawing for quad jacks under quad aces.

[sthief09]

I think the turn decision is pretty interesting, since it's not everyday you flop a set and fold the turn headsup.

preflop, the obvious hands he can have are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AK. how about AQ? hero's raise is not a steal raise, as he's raising a limper from EMP, so we don't expect the TAG to be raising light. So let's say he'll raise AQs 75% of the time there and AQo 50%. I think these are probably a bit high, but folding the best hand would be a big mistake, so I want to be conservative.

now let's talk about the flop. on one hand, he might not go nuts with AQ, but on the other, he might slowplay a set. so let's say he'd play AA or KK like this 75%, AsQs 100%, and all other AQ's 90%. the chances he has QQ is probably close enough to 0% that we can ignore it.

now the turn. he bets, like he'd do with any of these hands:
AA = (1)(.75)(1) = .75
KK = (1)(.75)(3) = 2.25
AK = (1)(1)(6) = 6
AsQs = (.75)(1)(1) = .75
AQ (not of spades) = (.5)(.9)(7) = 3.15

so you're ahead with 9 combinations and behind with 3.8, which means you're beat 9/12.8 = 70% of the time. also, about 2% of the time you'll spike a J on the river and collect 4 bets from AK or maybe AQ. the counterfeited AK won't give you much and AA has you crushed. your effective odds are also about 6-1, so, simply because monsters on this board aren't that mathematically probable, you can call down.

[mtdoak]

You only have to be right 1 out of 11 for this call to be profitable. Make it.