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#1
11-23-2004, 04:18 AM
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Another bubble \"do you make that call\"
$215 SNG on Party/Empire. Big stack has been bullying, and pushing any two cards. With UTG to be forced all-in next hand...I'm guessing big stack would fold about...0% of his hands here. After posting the BB, I have 220 left. Blinds don't go up for another orbit (to my recollection).
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hero/BB (t420) UTG <font color="blue"> "shorty" </font> (t127) Button (t8509) SB (t944) Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t8509 (All-In)</font>, SB folds, Hero...? ATo is about 63% against a random hand. Shorty (who will be forced all-in next hand) has been playing "hang on" folding his stack down - looks like he will fold his SB (if he were to win his BB all-in) unless he has a premium hand (if we're still on the bubble). Call or fold and why? 
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#3
11-23-2004, 04:39 AM
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Re: Another bubble \"do you make that call\"
Put him in his place and call .. it's all you can do or he will continue doing this, if he's being a really bully you probally have him slightly beat or badly beat (he might be going all in with any 2 face cards or A-x). A call here could change the whole pace of the game. If anything, at least you have notes about the guy for next time.
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#4
11-23-2004, 04:54 AM
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Re: Another bubble \"do you make that call\"
[ QUOTE ]
Put him in his place and call .. it's all you can do or he will continue doing this, if he's being a really bully you probally have him slightly beat or badly beat (he might be going all in with any 2 face cards or A-x). A call here could change the whole pace of the game. If anything, at least you have notes about the guy for next time. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. Call, 63% of the time take 9% of his stack, and put him in his place, and skyrocket your stack to over 900 chips!. Not to mention the great note you can write even if you DO lose; "Plays his stack very well". Tuff to get that without calling. This is what happens when $10+1er's don't learn the game before dishing out advice.
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#5
11-23-2004, 05:02 AM
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Re: Another bubble \"do you make that call\"
I could only fathom moving in here with AA, KK, or QQ. It would be silly to risk $400 on A-10 when you could easily lose to even 72o. Make it to the money and go from there.
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#7
11-23-2004, 05:23 AM
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Re: Another bubble \"do you make that call\"
[ QUOTE ] Yeah. Call, 63% of the time take 9% of his stack, and put him in his place, and skyrocket your stack to over 900 chips!. Not to mention the great note you can write even if you DO lose; "Plays his stack very well". Tuff to get that without calling. This is what happens when $10+1er's don't learn the game before dishing out advice. [/ QUOTE ] That's great. He was asking for opinions, so I gave mine. It's not a call I would make all the time or even most of the time but sometimes you gotta through the numbers out the window and just use judgement. It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.
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#9
11-23-2004, 06:31 AM
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Maybe I\'m the only one who thinks it\'s close
If I fold in the BB, shorty should win his BB slightly less than 1/2 the time (one of the two non-big stack players may jump in the next hand with a monster, or if big stacks kindly decides to fold UTG (probably won't), then 2nd place stack may push a random/slightly better than random hand, etc.).
Of the slightly less than 1/2 the time that shorty survives, I will be all-in first - and probably get knocked out slighty more than half the time (that's close to 25% right there of not finishing in the money)... ...of the remaining 20% or so of the time we both have surivived...etc, etc. So by folding, I finish in the money only about 2/3 of the time (+ or - a little), and will mostly do no better than 20% for 3rd place. Given that the 2nd place stack is very short-stacked at 844 himself (after this hand), I think when you do the math, it comes out very close, since by calling with ATo and winning (the 63% of the time you do) you have a solid shot at 2nd and the 10% bump (of the times you win, you should average around 25% of the prize pool). If the 2nd place stack had something like 2,500, it's an instamuck, because even if you win you won't get 2nd often enough to justify it $EV wise...
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#10
11-23-2004, 07:45 AM
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Re: Another bubble \"do you make that call\"
ICM: If you fold your $EV is 0.1522
If you call and win your $EV is 0.2492 If you call and lose your $EV is 0 Assuming you really are 63% then 0.63 * 0.2492 = 0.156996 So yes, you are correct to call, but it's so close in terms of EV that it's probably worth passing up on.
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