How much to bet on the river

[davidross]

Party $100 NL tournament. 400 players, 1st round, blinds are 10/15. I still have 1000 chips. 2 limpers to me in LP with QQ and I make it 60 to go. Only 1 EP caller. He started teh hand with 1060 chips. 160 in the pot. Flop is 984 two diamonds. I have the Qd. Checked to me and I bet 100. He calls. 360 in the pot. Turn 2 clubs. He checks and I bet 300. He calls. 960 in the pot. River is another 2, no flush. He checks again. I have 540 left. How much do you bet here?

[SossMan]

all of it.

[Tosh]

Second that.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 540 left. How much do you bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

540

[RavenJackson]

What do you put him on? Ax both diamonds? So he has not paired his A and missed the flush. Wouldn't an all-in result in a sure fold?

I would be tempted to squeeze a little more out of him with a minimum bet. Then push if he plays back. That being said, both Tosh and Sossman are to be deferred to in this situation.

[adanthar]

Well, if he had a straight or flush draw, he missed them both, and if he had 98 you've got him, too.

Hands he has that he calls an all in with and you beat: JJ-TT, maybe A9-A8 (it's Party).

Hands he has that he's slowplaying for some bizarre reason: A2d (it's Party), a set/full, 92/82 soooted (Party).

I think I go all in and track his further progress to 'out on the bubble' 3 hours from now when he turns over a 2.

[Tosh]

Betting 15 into a pot of over 900 is just pointless, its just giving a cheap showdown to a 9 as much as squeezing a tiny amount of value from ace high.

He could have a variety of random hands he thinks are good, but unless he has a 2, set or bigger overpair, we have it. All these hands are fairly unlikely that he will wait to the river to check raise his flopped set or hit runner runer 2's. Not to mention that if he had kings/aces and has checked the river having called all sreets.

Stick it in, often he will fold some kind of busted draw but thats not a reason to be betting tiny amounts into a sizeable pot.

I would reasonably expect TT/JJ to always call all in. 9x, even hands like A8 and 77 to call all in here.

[gergery]

What hand could a good player play like that? I can’t think of any, so I’m having trouble putting him on a hand.

I suppose the only thing that makes any halfway sense would be a passively-played big draw that is getting enough implied odds to call the turn. Maybe JT diamonds that didn’t want to raise to no-man’s land but realized pushing was way overbetting.
Or an A8 for pair/flushdraw/overcard for 14 outs. Still, its oddly played by your opponent.

I’d probably have checked behind since its seems about as likely that he is ahead vs. being behind IF he calls. But really I think he was on a busted draw so won’t call.

I guess if you look at the hands, its probably slightly more likely he has some of the hands that might call. And if you figure he might be terrible and call with AK diamonds or 66 then I guess pushing is better.
Hands you are behind to that call: AA, KK, 99, 88, 44, A2
Hands you are ahead of that might call: JJ, TT, 98, A9, A8, T9 maybe other random crap

--Greg

[SossMan]

what does he have that's going to fold to an all in, but call a smaller bet of, say, 300?

I think a push is the only reasonable play here...anyting else is just giving chips away, IMO.

[Tosh]

Your mistake is not weighting the likelihood of the hands. I think we can give a VERY small weighting to KK and AA. I don't think he flopped a set here that often either, even if he'll fold some of the hands we expect him to call with, we're surely ahead too often to not go all in. Don't let your opponents off so easily.