What global warming?

[Izverg04]

I don't know much about the science of global climate, but a few cursory facts I picked up years ago have always led me to conclude that the fears of global warming are quite simply demented.

Fact 1. Without a greenhouse effect the Earth surface temperature would be ~40deg C cooler than it is. Picked this up doing a physics problem on blackbody radiation long ago in school. Makes me feel bad for the greenhouse effect and all the bad publicity that it is getting in the press.

Fact 2. Greenhouse effect is caused mostly by water vapor. I've seen numbers that 95% of the greenhouse effect is due to H2O. It's not obvious that 20-30% change in CO2 concentration will have a significant effect on the magnitude of effect.

Fact 3. It is publicized that the global surface temperature has increased by 1deg C over the last century, and that this is due to anthropogenic activity. However, the change in temperature between an ice age and interglacial is something like 6-10 deg C, and I don't think it is well known what causes these wild swings. So it is logical to suppose that these natural variations in climate would dwarf anthropogenic contributions. And even the fact that there's been warming over this century is still under dispute.

Fact 4. "Global warming" is so politicized that reading another media report is like listening to Pentagon announcing another success in the "missile defense" program. I give much less credence to another finding on the "global warming" front than I give, for example, on the subject of universe expansion. No political agenda involved in the latter subject.

Fact 5. I like it when it's warm. I'd be much more scared of the prospect of global cooling.

Anyone feel the same way? Am I way off base?

[Toro]

Around mid January up here in New England, we would appreciate a little global warming.

[The once and future king]

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don't know much about the science of global climate, but a few cursory facts I picked up years ago have always led me to conclude that the fears of global warming are quite simply demented.


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I dont know how you have the confidence to arrive at any conclusions. Perhaps try to

A: Arrive at a fuller understnanding of the science.

B: Get a rounder more complete and thourough set of facts.

C: Research the above for 10-15 years.

D: Arrive at some conclusions.

Im not saying your wrong, its just that you are offering little more than an unsubstantiated opinion.

[MMMMMM]

Bah. In a typically muggy New England summer, I would appreciate a little global cooling.

[The once and future king]

What we need is a thermostat.

[ddollevoet]

I agree 100%.

[wacki]

How can you look at this chart and not be worried? Seriously? If you tell any scientist (that knows about the subject) that global warming and the extra C02 in the air is nothing to worry about they will laugh at you.

[wacki]

Pick up the national geographic on global warming and read it. It's not pleasant reading.

[wacki]

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I don't know much about the science of global climate,

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I agree.

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but a few cursory facts I picked up years ago have always led me to conclude that the fears of global warming are quite simply demented.

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No, I think your sources are.

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Fact 1. Without a greenhouse effect the Earth surface temperature would be ~40deg C cooler than it is. Picked this up doing a physics problem on blackbody radiation long ago in school. Makes me feel bad for the greenhouse effect and all the bad publicity that it is getting in the press.

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Not worth responding to.

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Fact 2. Greenhouse effect is caused mostly by water vapor. I've seen numbers that 95% of the greenhouse effect is due to H2O. It's not obvious that 20-30% change in CO2 concentration will have a significant effect on the magnitude of effect.


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A 20-30% increase came and went a long time ago. The amount of carbon we are putting in the atmosphere is growing by leaps and bounds every year. We are not talking about percentage, we are talking about a multiplication factor.
Look at my chart. Pay attention to the C02 increase and the temperature increase. Do you see anything stick out? That H20 statistic is very misleading.


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Fact 3. It is publicized that the global surface temperature has increased by 1deg C over the last century, and that this is due to anthropogenic activity.

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It's more like 2 degrees C.

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However, the change in temperature between an ice age and interglacial is something like 6-10 deg C, and I don't think it is well known what causes these wild swings. So it is logical to suppose that these natural variations in climate would dwarf anthropogenic contributions. And even the fact that there's been warming over this century is still under dispute.

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Even with energy usage staying the way it is you may see an increase of 6-8 degrees in your lifetime. Add developing China and other countries, not to mention the already failing natural carbon sinks and who knows whats going to happen. As for those that are disputing the Carbon and temperature warming facts, I ask them to look at the chart and give me a reason why we shouldn't worry about it.


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Fact 4. "Global warming" is so politicized that reading another media report is like listening to Pentagon announcing another success in the "missile defense" program. I give much less credence to another finding on the "global warming" front than I give, for example, on the subject of universe expansion. No political agenda involved in the latter subject.

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Do you work for an oil company? What political motivations do academic scientists have that are conflicting interests?

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Fact 5. I like it when it's warm. I'd be much more scared of the prospect of global cooling.

Anyone feel the same way? Am I way off base?

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I like it when it's warm too, but you are waaaaayyyyyyyyyyy off base.

[ddollevoet]

I do plenty of reading. For instance, let's look at what www.globalwarming.org has to say:

"Global warming" at a glance: October 2004
"So, four datasets, four different answers, although all in the positive range. Our two measures of the well-mixed atmosphere indicate some warming, which could lead to as much as +1°C temperature increment over a century if the trend were to continue (not very worrying)."

Polar bear scare on thin ice
"
“Global warming could cause polar bears to go extinct by the end of the century by eroding the sea ice that sustains them,” is the dire warning contained in a new report from an international group of "researchers" called the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

I’m not quite sure what the future holds for polar bears, but it doesn’t appear that any alleged manmade global warming has anything to do with it.

The report, entitled “Impacts of a Warming Arctic,” pretty much debunks itself on page 23 in the graph labeled, “Observed Arctic Temperature, 1900 to Present.”

The graph shows that Arctic temperatures fluctuate naturally in regular cycles that are roughly 40 years long. The Arctic seems currently to be undergoing a warming phase — similar to one experienced between 1920-1950 — which will likely be followed by a cooling phase — similar to the one experienced between 1950-1990.

The report’s claim that increased manmade emissions of greenhouse gasesare causing Arctic temperatures to rise is debunked by the same graph, which indicates that the near surface Arctic air temperature was higher around 1940 than now, despite all the greenhouse gas emissions since that time."

The One-Percent Solution
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Many of the scientific papers that have contributed to global warming alarmism over recent weeks (such as the study that predicted the ruin of California’s wine industry or the more recent study predicting stronger hurricanes by 2080) have depended on models that assume atmospheric increases of carbon dioxide concentrations by one percent per year from 1990 to the end of the century.

This assumption is not backed up by the evidence, which has seen concentration increase by only 0.4 percent per year since 1990."