Effective odds on the flop

[Jasmien]

Hello,
i read in some posts that if you are on a flush draw and your on the turn that you are getting 1.86-1 and you should call 1$ if the pot size is 3$. Ok youre getting 3-1 pot odds but i think you also have to think about the bets on the turn.

For example:
I have to call 1$ on the flop and 2$ on the turn, so i lose, if i miss, 3$.
If i win, i win the 3$ from the flop and 2$ on the turn.
So it is 5$-3$ or 1.67-1

Now your pot odds are 5$-3$ (or 1.67-1) instead of 3-1. So a call would be -EV since you win 5$ for 35 times (=175$) but lose 3$ for 65 times (=-195). Thats an average lose of 20 dollars.

Thats abit confusing to me, that you count the money from the flop still as your money on the turn, cause you usually dont do that. Is that the correct calculation? How do you calculate it? Do you use the odds for turn OR river or only for the turn?

Thank you.
Jasmien [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AngryCola]

Hi,

I have been involved in numerous discussions dealing with effective odds over the last few days. I don't really feel like posting a lot about it anymore. I will offer you a short quote from Sklansky about effective odds. The answers to your questions are contained within.


David Sklansky probably explains effective odds better in one paragraph, than I do in numerous posts. I will quote a short bit of it here.

"Figuring effective odds may sound complicated, but it is a simple matter of addition. You add all the calls you will have to make, assuming you play to the end, to determine the total amount you will lose if you don't make your hand. Then compare this figure to the total amount you should win if you do make the hand. This total is the money in the pot at the moment plus all future bets you can expect to win, excluding your own future bets. Thus, if there is $100 in the pot at the moment and three more $20 betting rounds, you are getting $160-to-$40. When you think your opponent won't call on the end if your card hits, your effective odds would be reduced to something like $140-$40. If, on early betting rounds, these odds are greater than your chances of making your hand, you are correct to see the hand through to the end. If they are not, you should fold."

-David Sklansky pg.53 of The Theory of Poker

Hope this helps. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Jasmien]

ok thanks!
when i was thinking about this tobic I also looked at this chapter in TOP but didnt pay attention to the last part of it ("calculating effective odds"). But that describes my problem very well, thx again [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]