What's your move here

[jslag]

NL100, Blinds $1/2

I am dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG. I open for $10. The table has been very passive the last several orbits, so I felt AQo was worth a raise even though I am UTG.

Folded around to the BB who calls. He bluffs a bit too much, but has also shown down some winners and isn't a complete fish/maniac by any means.

Flop is 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. ($21)

BB checks. I check.

Turn is Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. ($21)

BB checks again. I bet $20. ($41)

BB calls. ($61)

Hmm, I'm thinking his possible holdings are a made flush, QJ, AJ, KQ, JT, QT, KT, 22, 55 -- he could call here with a lot of hands that beat me, or several that are behind. Not sure what to read him as.

River is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. ($61)

BB now leads out for $20. ($81)

He could be bluffing, but I don't want to be wrong and pay off his two pair or flush. Very tricky bet because it almost asks for a call, but also looks a bit weak.

Do you fold, call, or raise?

[soah]

You only need to win 1 time in 4 to break even on calling this bet. Raising is bad since it's basically a bluff. You have too much to fold and not enough to raise, so I'd just call.

[GameTheory]

I call, based on your description of him. However, I wouldn't feel 100% secure with it.
Opening for 5 BB with AQ off? That's a 10th of max buy-in. If the players are any good, getting called would usually mean you're up against a better hand, especially with that board.

[DBowling]

It really seems like youre beat here. I dont know. Hes passive on the flop. Passive on the turn. Then comes out underbetting the river? The thing is i dont think you can fold, just because you cant let him pull this play on you. If he got you to fold the best hand 20% of the time hes making a profit. At the same time, i dont think you have a hand thats worth a raise. The only reasonable hand you beat here is KQ. So just flat call and pay off his flush, two pair, set.

[jslag]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is i dont think you can fold, just because you cant let him pull this play on you. If he got you to fold the best hand 20% of the time hes making a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad many of you are advocating what I ended up doing. I was pretty sure he had me beat, but I was getting decent odds to call. And I agree with you here, I cannot let him pull this play.

I thought it was a great bet if he was bluffing, I nearly folded. Really threw me for a loop.

I called. He showed A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and MHIG! How he calls my turn bet with just a 6 high flush draw, I have no clue.

DBowling, what was it you were saying about datamining at one of my tables? I was away or I would have responded.

[damn_river]

i call here. there is just too many possible hands he could have, also he led with a bet that seems like he wants you to raise. you can't fold TPTK for that amount though.
-river

[swolfe]

call, you're getting 4:1, and i think you win this at least 25% of the time. i wouldn't raise since there's a good possibility that you're beat and you don't want to reopen betting for him, giving him the chance to push you off your hand or to lose more money.

[DBowling]

Yea that was me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I dont know why revealed myself, just giving you a heads up i guess [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I just moved up from 50nl, so ive been leaving the computer on collecting hands.

[Kaz The Original]

Do you often check these flops? Or check vs this player?

[jslag]

Just depends. Sometimes I will bet, sometimes I will check behind for a free card (worked well here). Yes, I might have been able to pick up the pot on the flop with a bet, but if you do that every time at NL100 you'll eventually get check-raised with a hand you have to let go of. You see that by checking, I then hit my queen on fourth street which was somewhat deceptive and allowed me to make more money on the hand.