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#1
11-19-2004, 01:27 AM
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Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
Okay, not sure if this post will be of any value because it all comes down to the read I have on players, but perhaps some people can comment on that, or my thinking process or anything...
HU NLHE, I limp for some reason with KJo, normally I'll raise but this time I limp, he raises to $30 (5/10), I call. Flop is A78, he bets $20, hm, doesn't seem like an ace so I call planning to checkraise turn or lead out on river if he checks behind turn. Turn is a 9, I check he bets $60, I am pretty sure he does not have an ace for many reasons, bet size, timing, the way he plays, etc. I raise to $160 he calls. It suddenly occurs to me he might have picked up a straight draw on the turn. River is 8, I don't see any value in betting here, and check, he bets $180. I think about calling, but just idly, it's not a serious consideration, I'm really thinking "I can't call that." And fold. He shows T5. Okay another hand, double shootout first table, loose aggro button raises to 300 (50/100 blinds, we both have 4.5k, 4 players left), I call in SB with AJo. HU, flop is TT9, I check he checks. Turn is 7, I check he bets $500, I feel I have the best hand and call. River is 6, I check he goes all in. "[censored], I can't call that," muck. He shows KJ. Any thoughts on this? 
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#3
11-19-2004, 04:54 AM
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Re: Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
Funny, I could see myself thinking excactly like you and then taking the same action as you as well.
But second hand I could never call. Not even in hindsight would say it's a good call. The opponent could easily even be slowplaying a full or actually, be "bluffing" a better hand too, figuring you for "something" when you call the turn. lars
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#4
11-19-2004, 05:11 AM
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Re: Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
I like your reads, even if, they would've turned out to be incorrect in the end.
You're rationalizing is right on the money. Unfortunately, bluffing is high +EV in NL, and leaves you with very tough decisions constantly, many of which are rhetorical. I think that both of your fold are correct though. A 180 bet into a 2xx pot doesn't exactly look like a "I'm stealing from your check after I was raised on Turn" bet. It seemed like he was value betting a made hand. Clearly, making this call in this situation 1000 times will surely kill you, so good job folding--When all you see is a graphic of a chip bet, it makes calling bluffs very tough.
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#5
11-19-2004, 05:58 AM
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Re: Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
[ QUOTE ]
Okay another hand, double shootout first table, loose aggro button raises to 300 (50/100 blinds, we both have 4.5k, 4 players left), I call in SB with AJo. HU, flop is TT9, I check he checks. Turn is 7, I check he bets $500, I feel I have the best hand and call. River is 6, I check he goes all in. "[censored], I can't call that," muck. He shows KJ. [/ QUOTE ] just curious, why didn't you reraise him preflop? you say he's loose aggro so you gotta figure AJ is good why let him have control of the hand? then you get a pretty good flop for your hand (considering your opponent) and you check it twice, then fold. you are practically begging him to bluff at the pot and take it away from you. honestly i respect most of your posts but on this particular hand i'm completely lost as to any logic behind you're play (i'm refering to the tourney hand). i'd love it if you'd share your thought process.
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#7
11-19-2004, 12:33 PM
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Re: Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
hand 1: Because waiting for the turn will give me more info plus more money if I'm right. Maybe slightly more believable too. One thought on hand 1 is, maybe I should have fired on the river again too, in case he picked up a pair somewhere.
hand 2: Weird stack sizes for that, plus against a very aggro player? Seems very risky.
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#8
11-19-2004, 01:03 PM
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Re: Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
Hi Bruiser,
Yes, you should've gone with your reads! Why didn't you? Not to toot my own horn, but I would've played both of these hands just like you did, except I would always pull the trigger on the river in the first hand, and usually check-raise all-in on the turn in hand 2. I would never just call the 500 and then check the river, because you can't beat some bluffs (small pairs, AK-AQ). [ QUOTE ] River is 8, I don't see any value in betting here, and check, he bets $180. [/ QUOTE ] This is the fuzziest thinking in your post, I think. The value in betting is that, again, you bluff out some bluffs that beat you, and you keep him from bluffing you out when you suspect you have the best hand. Also, re-raising pre-flop is the standard play in hand 2.
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#9
11-19-2004, 01:45 PM
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Re: Should I Have Gone With These Reads?
hand 1: I don't think the reason "keep him from bluffing you out when you suspect you have the best hand" is a real reason, if that is your reason that I should just check/call the river.
hand 2: Okay preflop, I guess my thinking is a little bad on this one. I was thinking I need him to fold, or I need to flop the hand, I didn't realize the combination of the two makes reraising a good play. However I'm not entirely convinced, there is 450 in the pot, say if I raise to 1200 I will flop the best hand 1/4 the time (sound reasonable?). What percent of the time do I need for him to fold preflop for reraising to be the right play? I'm not sure how to do the math here. And, if you knew he'd call the reraise, and is loose and aggro, you'd just call his raise wouldn't you? Onto the turn, there is 1700 in the pot when I call his 500, it just doesn't seem worth it to have to throw in that extra 3k. I was prepared to call a river bet but not his overbet. Although raising all in here does have the advantage of protecting my hand too. I see your points, but I'm not sure I'm convinced here either.
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