River bluff

[BobboFitos]

This hand was played by my friend. He's a LAG, so this wasn't unusual for him, and I think it was a well thought out bluff. Want some feedback. (He's not the most ABC player out there, "forewarning"...) Live 1/2 NL as well.

Hero ~175$ Loose/gets value out of everything
Villain ~120$ Has done nothing out of line, but he's fairly loose passive
PFR ~140$ No read, but has played solid poker and is up money (BB this hand)

Hero gets 8-8 in CO. Villain is CO-1 and PFR is BB.

Preflop: Villain open limps, Hero throws in 2 white chips, small blind folds, PFR raises the blind to 7. Villain and Hero call. (22$ in pot)

Flop: 9 6 3 r.
PFR leads out for 11, Villain calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 5x
Pot: 55
PFR checks, Villain checks, Hero checks

River: 4x
Pot: 55
PFR bets 10, Villains calls, Hero raises 40 more. (Final board of 9 6 5 4 3 no flush possible)

I VERY rarely make river bluffs / bluff raises, and this hand really interested me. Thoughts...

[kingele]

Good raise by your friend. PFR slowing down on the turn against two opponents is likely to signal that he missed with AK/AQ/AJ but it's checked around and the river card is a blank, meaning he'll take one last stab at it. The caller in between realizes this and is hoping to win the pot with a weak pocket pair or some mid pair but he hasn't factored in your friend and will likely fold his marginal holding and of course the unimproved AK/AQ will fold as well.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Good raise by your friend. PFR slowing down on the turn against two opponents is likely to signal that he missed with AK/AQ/AJ but it's checked around and the river card is a blank, meaning he'll take one last stab at it. The caller in between realizes this and is hoping to win the pot with a weak pocket pair or some mid pair but he hasn't factored in your friend and will likely fold his marginal holding and of course the unimproved AK/AQ will fold as well.

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V good analysis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also - my friend figured PFR couldn't have a straight with 4 to a straight and (correctly IMO) read his bet as a blocking bet with something like TT or JJ. When Villain JUST called, he MOST LIKELY didn't have a 7 for the straight either. I just was very impressed with his instincts, as I probably would've dumped the hand on the flop.

[creedofhubris]

Hero should've bet the pot on the turn.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero should've bet the pot on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think Hero is winning on the Turn. He didn't think so either.

Not sure if PFR would fold an OP in this spot, either.

[kuro]

I'm not sure that I'd classify your friends river bet as a bluff. It looks like your friend probably has the best hand or is betting into a hand that's not going to lay down.
I don't think that most people are laying down an overpair on the river because of the straight draw that's out there or because they're that scared of a set. When your friend makes that reraise on the river, he's unlikely to get called except by hands that beat him.

The PFR's play is pretty interesting. If the PFR is a strong player, I'd be worried about a set of 9s that he's been trying to get people to bluff at. The half pot bet on the river looks like it's designed to keep someone in the pot. You'd think that if he had AK or a mid pocket pair that he'd have bet around the pot to try to take it down there. The weak bet on the river could just as easily be a ploy to get an aggressive player to bet into him as an actual sign of weakness.

I think you just call here and see what happens. He doesn't have much invested in the pot, probably has the best hand, doesn't have much chance of extracting money from lesser hands, and stands to lose a significant part of his stack if he's wrong.

[amoeba]

I don't like it that much.

Why call the flop bet?

you are essentially drawing to a coordinated board so you can bluff.

While the river bluff might be good, we might have never gotten there.

if you believe both players were on AK/AQ/AJ instead of overpairs, why not bluff raise the flop?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it that much.

Why call the flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

His reasoning: Just because the PFR did what his name implies, doesn't mean he has the best hand. He felt he could feel the hand out by the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
you are essentially drawing to a coordinated board so you can bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

No - he's not drawing. In his mind he's winning, it's just how to get to the river cheaply.

[ QUOTE ]
if you believe both players were on AK/AQ/AJ instead of overpairs, why not bluff raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two reasons:
1. It wouldn't be a bluff-raise, it would be a raise for value.
2. Raising here gets him into alot of trouble if he's wrong; he would be putting a lot of money into the pot for a relatively small amount.(Risk/reward)

[amoeba]

I still don't think it makes any sense.

If a broadway fell on the turn or river, do you think he makes that river raise? He probably goes in to check fold mode.

my fault on the terminology, it would be a raise for value on the flop. So why not raise for value?

yes raising gets him in to lots of trouble here if hes wrong but so does raising to 40 on the river, as he did in this case, if hes wrong. overpair is not folding for 30 more.

in any case, I don't see why you give the PFR a chance to catch his overcard on the turn and river. If you are wrong and hes on overpairs, its still cheaper to find out by a flop raise rather than a river raise.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
yes raising gets him in to lots of trouble here if hes wrong but so does raising to 40 on the river, as he did in this case, if hes wrong. overpair is not folding for 30 more.


[/ QUOTE ]

This wasn't Party Poker, it was live play. The PFR wa solid, and although the Villain was slightly fishy, in terms of PFR folding an OP:
I think you're wrong about an overpair folding for 30 more. What can OP beat aside from a river bluff raise? Even though Hero is prone to do such stuff, it's still relatively small %.

If you're on the river and you bet, (and in your mind it's a blocking bet) and then next to act flat calls and last to act raises it up, I fold it - the caller in the middle serves a protection.

But maybe he should've raised more than 30.


in any case, from a results perspective, it worked, and PFR did say he folded OP. Villain grumbled for a while, looked a my friend for a little while, shook his head, and threw his cards in the muck. I dont know what he had, but I wouldn't doubt it if he had something like T9.

Also...

[ QUOTE ]
If a broadway fell on the turn or river, do you think he makes that river raise? He probably goes in to check fold mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

He made the river raise because he saw 4 to a straight and based on the actions of the players in the hand it was highly unlikely that THEY had a straight. If a broadway fell AND PFR bet hard into the pot again, I'm fairly positive he'd fold it then. Was his flop call profitable? Probably not, I certianly wouldn't make it, but my question was the river raise, not flop call.

And one more thing...

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my fault on the terminology, it would be a raise for value on the flop. So why not raise for value?

[/ QUOTE ]
9 x x board. You raised preflop. You bet the flop and get 1 caller than a raise. You can't beat 8-8. What is your hand range you WOULD call with?