First Foray Into Full Ring Games

[fsuplayer]

Thinking about switching to full ring limit.

I am prob. too agg. and call down too much in general from a lot of 6 max play.

party 5/10 full

A hand that felt truly ugly.

Convertor is down this week.

No real reads.

i raise UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

MP three bets, all fold. I call.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
check, bet, call.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
check, bet, call.

river:3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

check, bet, call.

ugh.

fold the turn, river?

thanks


fsuplayer

[digdeep]

Fold the turn, river? Where is the raise? You may be behind, but you don't really know if you don't bet or raise somewhere, do you? Isn't the line here call/call/raise?

[jayrutz2]

no way fold! He could have a TON of hands you beat, including AK, AJs, JJ. Putting him on AA or KK is way too much credit for one preflop raise. I'd bet into him on the flop and see how he reacts. If he raises I call turn and go from there...

[PokerNoob]

Why are you thinking about switching to full ring? I don't play very much full ring at all anymore, and I'm worried that the full ring skillset is different enough that I'll get rusty. When I do play full ring, I find myself making some preflop calls that maybe I shouldnta oughta make, based on the "well, they'll pay off" theory. Sometimes I feel like I'm not even making correct ABC plays at full ring.

On to the hand: Checkraise flop? Its monotone and opponent may decline to get frisky without a real big diamond. You could fold the turn if he 3-bets the flop and leads. Hopefully he wouldn't do that with AK or JJ, with one diamond.

[Sarge85]

Wins the most when your ahead, lose the least when your behind.

Looks reasonable. - I'm certainly not folding anywhere.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[sfer]

You've been hanging around LAGs for too long. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] You played this fine.

[Aces McGee]

Looks good to me, Captain.

-McGee

[ErrantNight]

in headsup pots in uncoordinated boards when you've been 3-bet before the flop where you're either way ahead or way behind, this is the correct line.

you win the most possible money when you're ahead, lose the least when you're behind.

this is one of those times when passive play is fine. there has been some big discussions on here about this a few times if you'd like some similar examples/supporting evidence.

[colgin]

Looks OK to me except I would consider betting the river.

Anybody else like the check-call, check-call, bet line here?

[spamuell]

Before you read this, I have probably made at least one, if not several serious errors in this post. This is the type of stuff I should do but don't do enough because I suck at math.

At first, I thought you should check-call, check-call, bet-fold. Then I decided you should probably check-call the flop and check-fold the turn.

Now, inspired by GoT, I need to do some math:

Hands that would 3-bet an UTG raise (number of combinations possible after the flop):

AA (6)
KK (3)
QQ (1)
JJ (6)
TT (6)
AK (12)
AQs (3)

I don't know how likely someone is to 3-bet an UTG raise with TT or AQs, but I think this is reasonable against an unknown.

Out of the combos, I'll split them up into the following format: Hand (with one diamond) (without diamond) (already has flush)

So you have:

AA (3) (3) (0)
KK (2) (1) (0)
QQ (0) (1) (0)
JJ (3) (3) (0)
TT (3) (3) (0)
AK (5) (6) (1)
AQs (0) (3) (0)

On the flop, you are behind 15 combinations of hands and ahead of 23 combinations.

Any hand with the potential to make a flush will mean that if you are ahead, you lose to it about 37% of the time (I think this is right, it's more than the usual 35% because you have two non-diamond cards in your hand).

Number of outs you have against those hands which are ahead of you:

AA (6): 5
KK (3): 2
QQ (3): 0 (well you have running kings, but I don't know how to quantify that and I'm sure you lose money anyway because of the bets you lose if you hit your K on the turn and don't river the other one, which obviously you won't most of the time)
AQs (3): 2

OK so we do the multiplication of each column thing and we get:

AA (6): 5: 30
KK (3): 2: 6
QQ (3): 0: 0
AQs (3): 2: 6
Sum: (15):: 42

So when you are behind, your weighted outs are 42/15 which is 2.8. Then you have to consider that against those hands, out of the 15 combinations of them, 5 of them have a diamond so really you need to discount the 2.8 by 37% of a third which makes it something like 2.45 outs, which is pretty bad.

Then you have to consider the hands which you are ahead of and how many outs they have against you. I've done this by subtracting the number of outs they have against you from 47 so it shows the number of safe cards for you on the turn and river and then multiplied them by one another:

JJ (6): 45: 270
TT (6): 45: 270
AK (11): 44: 484
Totals: (23): : 1024

So, when ahead, you have 1024/23 outs which is ~44.5 (or your opponent has 2.5 outs). But, consider that out of the 23 combinations of hands, 11 have a diamond so 37% of 11/23rds of the time, you lose by the river which means that you really have about 36.6 outs, which means that when ahead, you are still ahead on the river only about 60% of the time.

So, 37% of the time you are behind on the flop and will improve to the winner about 11% of the time, and 63% of the time you are ahead on the flop and will remain ahead by the river about 60% of that time. So you win this hand 41.87% of the time.

Assuming that your opponent will bet every street regardless of what he holds and what cards fall (which obviously won't be the case but we can improve on that), the pot is 7sb (I subtract .5sb rake) on the flop and it will be 12sb by the river and it will cost you 5sb to call down which means that check-call, check-call, check-call would be about +1.07 BBs.

Assuming a diamondless turn and river:

If your opponent bets the flop and checks behind on the turn, the vast majority of the time they have AK and sometimes JJ/TT and you have an easy river value bet.

However, your opponent will often bet the turn and check behind on the river with AK, JJ or TT and call a bet with JJ or TT and maybe call the river 1/4 of the time with AK, so you gain a bet if you bet the river, but you lose one bet those times you're behind (assuming you fold to a raise), however as shown above you're ahead more often than you are behind so you should check-call the flop and turn and bet the river if there is no diamond on the turn or river.

If a diamond does fall on the turn or river, you need to re-evaluate how ahead you are. This is tricky, because while your opponent will sometimes bet worse hands than you have without diamonds. Given the numbers above, if a diamond falls on the turn then I think check-calling the turn and check-folding the river is good. If it falls on the river, it might make TT or JJ take one last stab at it, but I'd check-fold anyway, they probably want to showdown. I don't know if this is good but my head hurts after writing all this stuff.

Heh, I did all this just to show that check-call, check-call, bet is the best line without fourflushes, which we knew anyway.

EDIT: [censored], I missed out the AKd hand in the hands that you are behind. It's only one combination of a hand though, so I doubt it makes that much difference.