Hello, my name is Milo, and I'm a Fish...

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Help me figure this one out. First off, I love to play and my tendency is to want to play too many hands. Multitabling helps this somewhat, but until August my V$IP over the previous 30K hands at 2/4 and 3/6 was a respectable 18%. Then I read SSH and felt I suddenly had permission to play ATo from MP, KTo from LP, and added Axs and PP from everywhere (assuming a relatively passive table). My WR went way up and I was fat and happy until I looked at my numbers today when I noticed my V$IP climbing steadily). Looking at just post-SSH play, my V$IP is 22.4% over the last 32K+ hands, which seems absolutely insane.

A few other before and after stats:

PFR was 7.2%, now is 8.5%
AF-T was 1.71, now is 1.91
SD% was 32%, now is 35%
W$ when saw flop was 30.5%, now is 33.4%
W$SD was 53%, now is 52%

I'm also calling down more on the river, and adjusting for the uneven number of hands, I would see SD in 2453 of 32K hands under the pre-SSH play and saw SD 3172 of 32K hands post SSH, with pretty similar W$SD percentages.

I've been trying to figure this out, and my hypotheses are:

1) I'm a fish and have been running well.

2) The increased aggro has allowed me to take down pots I wouldn't have before.

3) I'm calling down marginal hands and winning a number of these.

4) ?????

5) I suck (see #1).

[StellarWind]

Looks like you are putting in a lot more approximately zero-EV action than you used to. No doubt your variance has increased considerably.

Quite possibly you've also done something that isn't easily measured in stats: improved your postflop play.

Only time will tell whether your improved win rate will hold up.

[maynard]

Well, I also play ATo from MP, KTo from LP, and Axs and any PP from EP in passive games, and my VP$IP is something like 16.5% (17K hands)... so maybe you're playing additional hands that are even more "marginal" than the above? Do you see any significant difference between your 2-4 and 3-6 stats? All my numbers are from 3-6, and I find myself often in reasonably aggressive games where ATo and KTo are obviously unplayable behind a PF raise. Is 2-4 passive enough relative to 3-6 to let you see that many more flops?

Another possible difference - how do you handle small PP and suited connectors in MP when first in? I'll play any PP from EP in appropriate conditions, but if I'm first in from MP with something like 33, I'm usually gone, unless I can count on a couple fish behind seeing the majority of flops. And I'm definitely folding medium suited connectors first in from MP, while I would play them behind a limper or two.

[Eratosthenes]

Hi Milo--

I've seen an increase in my VPIP (and BB/100) recently. I think the VPIP increase is due to better table selection. I am taking more care to play at loose, passive tables. Since I am seeing fewer preflop raises, I'm in more hands. My sample size is too small to make conclusions about my win rate.

You can use the formula in this thread to put some confidence limits on your win rate.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

[ QUOTE ]
No doubt your variance has increased considerably.



[/ QUOTE ]

It has.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I also play ATo from MP, KTo from LP, and Axs and any PP from EP in passive games, and my VP$IP is something like 16.5% (17K hands)... so maybe you're playing additional hands that are even more "marginal" than the above? Do you see any significant difference between your 2-4 and 3-6 stats? All my numbers are from 3-6, and I find myself often in reasonably aggressive games where ATo and KTo are obviously unplayable behind a PF raise. Is 2-4 passive enough relative to 3-6 to let you see that many more flops?

Another possible difference - how do you handle small PP and suited connectors in MP when first in? I'll play any PP from EP in appropriate conditions, but if I'm first in from MP with something like 33, I'm usually gone, unless I can count on a couple fish behind seeing the majority of flops. And I'm definitely folding medium suited connectors first in from MP, while I would play them behind a limper or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

In reviewing data, I think I am seeing the flop too indiscriminantly with Axs, suited connectors, and small pairs. I've often played these when there are not enough others in the pot to give the required odds, or cold-called a raise with A4s and three other cold callers.

[spamuell]

Hi Milo,

Your VP$IP is much higher than mine (about 18.6) but I still don't think you're that aggressive, although you might be more so than you used to be.

Does anyone know how fast most of these numbers converge? I only 15k hands in PT at the moment.

[ QUOTE ]

PFR was 7.2%, now is 8.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine's 11.59%.

[ QUOTE ]
AF-T was 1.71, now is 1.91

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine's 2.56.

[ QUOTE ]
SD% was 32%, now is 35%

[/ QUOTE ]

That's went to showdown? Wow that seems quite high. Maybe you could post some hands where you're showdowning now and you weren't before (have you worked out where they are)?

[ QUOTE ]
W$ when saw flop was 30.5%, now is 33.4%

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably due to your increased aggression, but yeah maybe you are running really good. Don't really see how you can tell without just playing more.

[ QUOTE ]

W$SD was 53%, now is 52%

I would see SD in 2453 of 32K hands under the pre-SSH play and saw SD 3172 of 32K hands post SSH, with pretty similar W$SD percentages.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you've been seeing way more showdowns and winning slightly less? This is going to increase your WR hugely as you usually lose 1 or 2 bets that you wouldn't have when you see showdown where you didn't before but win several times that when you win at showdown, especially as the pots which you're more likely to be showdowning in are the larger ones.

Your VP$IP does seem very high though. Try posting some KTo hands, that is a really bad hand.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
cold-called a raise with A4s and three other cold callers.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems OK to me if you're going to get action after the flop, which you almost certainly are.

[VBM]

In small stakes hold'em, the real money is won and lost after the flop -- Ed Miller, SSHE

somebody remarked to me the other day that they felt that people tend to focus too much on pre-flop play here, b/c it's the easiest part to improve/change. thinking about it, i agree. i think it is important to have good hand selection b/c it makes your decisions easier on later streets, but the quality of your post-flop play does have more far-reaching consequences, for good or ill...

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
somebody remarked to me the other day that they felt that people tend to focus too much on pre-flop play here, b/c it's the easiest part to improve/change. thinking about it, i agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think people focus on pre-flop play all that much. It is important. But by far the majority of the discussion on here is post-flop.