The correct use of odds!

[Jasmien]

Hello,
most books tell you how to calculate pot odds, implied odds and so on, but they dont tell you when to use them. Here is an example:

0.05$-0.10$ limited, mid position

Preflop:
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop
8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

potsize: 0.35$

2 players to my right bet/call, now it is up to me (4 people behind me)
Ok im gettin 9 outs -> 1.86-1 of hiting on turn or river. Should i use these odds? If so, i have to use the following bets as well (effective odds?). But it isnt as that easy to estimate them, is it?

Now lets say the turn is a 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Now im gettin 4.11-1 odds. If the pot is, for example, 1$ (two callers to my right, 1 to my left) should i say: im getting 10-1 odds? Or do you see the guy to your left and say, if he calls, that your pot odds are 11-1? Wich one do you use?


I hope my post is, because of my bad english, not too much confusing to you.


Thank you.
Jasmien

[Jasmien]

*bumb* (sorry [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

[radek2166]

if i am reading it right. raise the flop. all u need is 2 people in the pot with you.

A raise here might get some folders behind you.

[nothumb]

I think you have more than 9 outs on the flop, plus backdoor draws. (For instance, in your example, the 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gives you a gutshot draw.)

On the flop, you have more like 12 or 13 outs. (9 diamonds, 3 aces and a backdoor straight draw that is worth a partial out.) With so many players behind you it's close between raising and calling.

On the turn, you pick up 3 outs (three non-diamond 5's) giving you 15 probable outs. This means you are roughly 2-1 against and probably still have a value bet.

NT

[lhoney2]

Raise that flop. You will get plenty of action for correct implied odds. If you don't hit on the turn, then recalculate your odds again. It's a dynamic thing.. If there are enough seeing the turn...jam the pot again. Build BIG pots for when you hit.

[Jasmien]

thank you for your posts but you didnt really answer my questions [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
The first one: if i calculate the odds for two cards to come (e.g. 35% for 9 outs) (turn AND river), then i have to use effective odds, and estimate the bets of the future (river). Right? Do you calculate it usually for the turn AND river or only for the turn?
And the 2nd.: If there are 2 callers to my right and one guy to my left. If i now calculate my odds, do i use only the bets of the persons to my right or do you use also the bet of the other guy if you think he will call?


I hope you understand what i mean [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


PS: The 9 outs of the hand above was just an example, so it isnt important if there are more than 9 outs [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[easypete]

I had confusion on this when I was playing in the micros. I think everybody goes through this at one point, and some never get over it.


OK... Things to take into consideration here (these are not specific to your hand, just general into what action to take):

1. Was there a pfr?
2. What is your position to the pfr?
3. How many outs do you have (assuming you're on a draw)?

On the flop, you need to look at both the odds of making it on the turn and the river. For instance, in this hand, you have 9 outs for the flush and give yourself another .75 or 1 out for the backdraw straight and 1.5 for the Ace that may be good.

I'm sure you heard of EV. You need to make decisions based on +EV. Sometimes calling is good, but other times, raising with a draw is the better option. I'm giving you about 11.5 outs here, so you will hit the turn one in 4.1 times (or 3.1:1), and you are 1.3:1 on hitting your hand by the river (granted and ace may not be great, that's why 1.5 outs). In looking at this situation on the flop, you are 1.3:1 to hit by the river... If there are 2 opponents in the hand and the flop gets capped, and you do this for the rest of your life in this same situation, you will make money on a capped flop over time. You will lose your share of hands, but as long as you are against more opponents than the odds you are getting, then you will make money.

I'm distracted by the Falcons game, so I may not be explaining it well.

When you hit the turn, if it's a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you gained the gutshot draw, so you still have 9 outs for the flush, and 3 more outs for the non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5. An Ace may still be good, but i would derate it to 1 out. You have a total of 13 outs. Your odds of hitting the river are 2.5:1. If you have 3 opponents here and you think you can get away with it, I would raise here as well.

To contrast to this, let's say you have just a gutshot to the nuts and only have 4 outs. You will make your hand on the turn 10.75:1 and by the river 5.1:1. If there are 6 players on the flop and you think all of them will call a bet, then that's +EV, but this doesn't happen very often, so you have to think about the odds of making it on the turn (10.75:1). So you need the pot paying you out better than 10.75:1 to justify a call.

I think the big thing on the flop when looking at the odds is first look at the odds of making your hand by the river. If the number off players in the pot is greater than the odds, then try to bump the pot up, but make sure you do it correctly... If you are UTG+1 and UTG bets out, you may want to call. Raising here may ruin your own pot odds by making the rest of the field fold to your raise.

If the number of players is not better than the odds of making it by the river, then you have to look at the odds of making it by the turn (assuming you're facing a bet), then compare the odds to the pot size.