How far do you take unpaired AKo?

Thriller · #1 11-12-2004, 11:51 AM

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (11.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 15.70 BB
Main Pot: 15.70 BB, between BB and MP2.

Was I just a calling station on this hand?

btspider · #2 11-12-2004, 11:54 AM

the flop call is fine.. no reason to raise with your excellent relative position.

the turn call is good since you picked up the gutshot. you have 10 outs, but they all must be severely discounted.. so you need about 3-4 outs to call. i can see that. i don't think i would raise the river if I hit any of these outs though.

topspin · #3 11-12-2004, 11:54 AM

I'd fold the turn; the odds aren't that great and you may be reverse dominated.

topspin · #4 11-12-2004, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the turn call is good since you picked up the gutshot. you have 10 outs, but they all must be severely discounted.. so you need about 3-4 outs to call. i can see that. i don't think i would raise the river if I hit any of these outs though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd give him closer to 3 outs -- his overcards may be tainted, and I'd estimate holding the bottom end of a single-card gutshot about balances out the fact that if an A hits it puts 4 to a straight on the board. The two hearts on the board may devalue this further. With the big pot and closing the action I agree the odds are pretty close, but the problem I see with calling is that it's very likely he could hit one of his outs and make an expensive second-best hand.

Suppose A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] had fallen on the river instead and it's still a bet and a raise to him; do we feel comfortable calling here?

btspider · #5 11-12-2004, 12:10 PM

no, sorry i didn't clarify. i would probably fold to 2 bets if I hit any A or K.. although its easier to fold to two bets if the Ace comes. if the 3 comes and you face two bets.. you have a tough decision too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think the turn call is very close.. its not a big mistake one way or the other as long as you have some river control. if the flop was two-tone, i'd probably fold the turn since my heart outs would be discounted a bit more.

Thriller · #6 11-12-2004, 12:14 PM

I'm working on recognizing "discounted" outs. My thought process:

I'm last to act, no action on the flop...I've got 3 Aces, 3 Kings...47 cards left, 6 obvious outs...about 7:1, right?

On the turn, I pick up the straight draw, but a 3 can give someone a higher straight and possibly a four-flush. How many outs do you give the 3? I'm still counting 6 outs for the Aces and Kings. When it comes time for me to call, I'm getting 10.7:1 odds, so I figure I need 4 outs...I call.

River is easy.

Is that about right? How exactly do you discount the extra outs?

Entity · #7 11-12-2004, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm working on recognizing "discounted" outs. My thought process:

I'm last to act, no action on the flop...I've got 3 Aces, 3 Kings...47 cards left, 6 obvious outs...about 7:1, right?

On the turn, I pick up the straight draw, but a 3 can give someone a higher straight and possibly a four-flush. How many outs do you give the 3? I'm still counting 6 outs for the Aces and Kings. When it comes time for me to call, I'm getting 10.7:1 odds, so I figure I need 4 outs...I call.

River is easy.

Is that about right? How exactly do you discount the extra outs?

[/ QUOTE ]
Discount overcards by 1/2, generally. I think your K outs are worth more than your A outs due to the possibility of reverse domination, so I'd give your overcards 4 outs, and 2 outs for your 3's (on the turn) -- you may be drawing to a split. Flop call is fine. Turn call is close but fine, I think.

River fold is fine. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

Thriller · #8 11-12-2004, 12:23 PM

okay, so you're looking more at the scenario that one of my opponents is holding AT, A5 or A2?

Okay. I can see that.

As it turns out, PT shows that MP2 held TT, but never showed strength on his set until the river. BB turned over the K high flush.

Thanks for the help guys.

btspider · #9 11-12-2004, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is that about right? How exactly do you discount the extra outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

thumb in the wind to some extend..

Aces - 3 outs pre-discount
Usually you can cut overcard outs in half and get a good approximation. Ace outs are especially troublesome since Ax is played much more often than Kx. 1.5 outs is a little generous here with the backdoor flush appearing, but the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is still worth something.. so we have about 1.25 outs. The other problem with the Ace is it puts 4 to a straight out there. This also came backdoor.. so a huge discount isn't needed.. you'll know when you are beat so you won't be trapped for a lot of bets.
result: 1 out total

Kings - 3 outs pre-discount
similar argument to above, no backdoor straight concerns:
1.25 outs

3's - 4 outs pre-discount
three concerns: 3:heart completes the backdoor flush. any 3 lets a single 6 beat you. any Ace will split the straight with you. the split concern halves your effective outs, but we are only concerned with another Ace half the time.. so 4 outs now becomes 3. the 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is worth a minor deduction.. say half an out. drop it to 2.5. the 6's are a concern, but again the straight came backdoor.. so drop it to about 1.75 - 2.

This looks to be about 4 - 4.25 outs.. which should be enough with minor implied odds of calling on the end, closing the action. If the flop was two-tone.. I'm folding this turn. Its very marginal already.

pokerstudAA · #10 11-12-2004, 12:51 PM

Why not raise this flop? No one is between the Hero and the button. Hero raised PF and the BB could be betting out with all sorts of hands here. All the callers are definately a concern. A raise may kick him back on his heels if his is betting with T6, 5A, 34, or some other junk. If he 3 bets you on that flop it is possible he has two PR, or a weak set and you could make the fold easily if anyone in the field calls along. If the BB reraises the field will be faced with 2 bets - anyone calling that has got you beat seriously. If the BB calls the raise everyone else will also (silly fish) and hopefully it is checked to you on the turn - take the free card. No help - fold to river bet. Total cost - 2 small bets. I think the raise gives you a better idea if you will win if your A or K hit. I would do this against 2-3 in the pot but you had many callers which makes it much much more dangerous but I think it can save you bets on later streets and better define the hands of the BB and the rest of the field. Thoughts?

If the BB calls the raise and fires again on the turn - then calling depends on whether the turn card helped you or not and who of the callers is still playing - you get an AK then call or raise. Calling both flop and turn - costs 1 SB + 1 BB

Is this type of play why I suck with AK?