One-card OESD from BB

[Torgen]

Party 2/4, 9 handed. Let's say no reads other than generally loosish.
Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, MP1 limps, MP2 limps, MP3 folds, CO limps, Button folds, SB completes, Hero neglects to open-fold.

Flop (7 players, 7SB): 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets. Getting 8-1 on my OESD (needing 4.75-1), so Hero calls. Bad move? Drawing to half the pot too often? (Even then, it's close.) Even if I don't count the club outs, I only need 6.7-to-1 to call (although I'd need to be sure I wasn't going to chop to make the call then). UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Turn (6 players, 13SB -> 6.5BB): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, Hero is getting 7.5-to-1, which should still be enough to draw to 6 outs (obviously 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are no good now), as long as I am drawing to the whole pot. OTOH, I may be drawing dead to the flush or full house. Anyways, maybe Hero shouldn't call, but he does. UTG calls, UTG+1 raises (d'oh!), folds to SB who calls. Does that raise mean he has a Q, or slowplayed two pair and turned the boat, or made his flush? Hero reluctantly calls, UTG calls.

River (4 players, 14.5BB): A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Yay, I made my str8... I mean 3-high flush.
SB bets, Hero folds.

[Rubeskies]

Fold the turn. The fact that you could drawing dead, combined with only have 6 outs (tops), and the fact that you are not drawing to the nuts or even the nut straight and you have low implied odds because you can't really raise that much because of the flush being out there. Add in the fact that often you'll split if you hit with 4 opponents out there that your call is most likely -EV.

[Torgen]

Do I fold to the first turn bet, or the second?

[Rubeskies]

first one, which brings me to another point. You are not closing the action so you aren't sure you'll only have to call one bet to see the river card.

[Harv72b]

If I didn't bail on the flop, I would've folded on the turn for sure. As you said, even if you make the straight there's a good likelihood that you'll be splitting the pot, let alone the chance now that you're up against a flush or FH.

That said, once you get to the river, I think you have to call his bet. Even if it's only a 3, you caught the flush, and SB could be playing anything. I've seen a lot of hands won at the river by a blind with a 3 or 4 that caught a 4-suited board.

Besides, there's that chance that your opponent actually caught the royal flush, and hey--I'd want someone to call me if I did. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Torgen]

If I were instead calling 2 cold closing the action, I'd be getting 12.5-2 = 6.25-1. No good if I'm splitting or drawing dead already, but if I'm the only remaining J and can figure at least that one guy to overcall on the river when I make, it makes up the difference.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were instead calling 2 cold closing the action, I'd be getting 12.5-2 = 6.25-1. No good if I'm splitting or drawing dead already, but if I'm the only remaining J and can figure at least that one guy to overcall on the river when I make, it makes up the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you might be splitting or drawing dead means you have to discount your outs (this concept is put forth in SSHE). Because your outs may not be good you must count them as less then one out. Does this make sense?

Hypothetically, if you make your straight but somebody else already has the flush say 40% of the time, your straight outs are only worth 60% of their outs.

In this situation the fact that it is only a one card straight, you could make your straight and lose to a better straight, you could make your straight and lose to a flush and you could make you straight and split with another J or two other J or three other J all severly lower the worth of your outs. I'd say your outs in this case are maybe worth 3 at best 4 outs.

About the overcall on the river, there is no way you can garuntee that guy will call.