Wuss With A Set - Trusting My Read

[BonJoviJones]

MP3 is somewhat loose and passive, but not by much in either direction. Most of his looseness seems to be towards weak-ish suited hands (Jxs, Txs etc)

UTG I welcome in the hand, as he'll bet when he's got the goods, call when he doesn't.

On the flop he auto-raised, and I read it as an overpair, off chance a set. The turn help me, but I got scared of the flush when he raised again (though it wasn't an auto-raise this time).

What do you think of my read? Given the fact that he capped pre-flop, how often do you think I'm behind?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>

UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Button calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Button folds, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.75 BB

Wow, I totally played that too weak.

[digdeep]

You are behind to AK and AQ of diamonds. I 3-bet this turn and bet the river. He puts you on a pocket pair, he has Aces, raise with your set on the turn.

[SCfuji]

3-bet the flop and bet raise the turn and bet/call or check/call the river depending on how much strength he shows on the turn.

[Nick C]

I don't 3-bet the flop because I think there's too good of a chance I'm behind (I'm encouraged by the fact that Button didn't take his first opportunity to raise, but, given the pre-flop and flop action, I think MP3 probably has a better overpair than I do), and a 3-bet isn't very likely to drive anyone out even if it so happens that I am ahead. (Button and UTG have already called two cold once. I'm thinking they probably will again.)

I do 3-bet the turn, though. When the turn card falls, I'm very happy to see the jack, although I'm also thinking it's possible I may still need to boat up (or catch quads) to win. I'm more worried that Button or UTG just caught a flush than I am that MP3 did, but Button and UTG have both folded by the time the action gets back to you. In any event, I'd 3-bet the turn unless Button or UTG beat me to it (instead of folding), in which case I'd just call and hope to improve.