I feel like I'm lucky, not good

[TommyTutone]

I posted my stats in the general forum awhile ago, but suffice it to say I've played about 30k hands, starting at .50/1, and currently now in 3/6. I started with $50 in April and have currently turned it into $7100. I think I play well, my stats seem to agree (my VP$IP is 20% which is loose, but I find myself in shorter tables off and on, i.e. 7 or 8 players).

I don't say the above as a brag. I mean, I'm excited to have played so well over time, and heaven knows I've done my studying on Sklansky. I usually pass the poker quizzes that pop up (when I say pass, I mean get them all right, sometimes getting one or two wrong).

Despite all of this, I feel like I've just been on an 8 month good luck streak and that the whole house of cards will be tumbling down very soon. I have had bad streaks, and I have had streaks that were higher than normal of good luck, but everything to me is a streak.

Perhaps it is a lack of confidence in my skills; that although I seem to have the skills to play, there is still a lot of knowledge that I lack. For example, I am great at counting outs, safe outs, shaky outs, etc. I can use this to calculate pot odds, take a stab at implied odds, and act accordingly. In addition, I have gotten to where I can look at my hole cards and 95%+ of the time tell you what grouping they are in. What I DON'T know, and what I feel is crippling me, is being able to look at hole cards, perhaps look at the flop, and say 'hey, I will win this hand 65% of the time'. All I know is I see outs, I see what hands can beat me, and play accordingly, and that in time, missing this bit of skill will be my downfall.

I'm not looking for an ego stroke here as much as wondering if any other players kind of feel the same way, even the better players out there. Do you ever start to doubt yourself (and note, last night was a huge winning night for me, so I'm very much not complaining after a big downswing)?

As a bonus, here's my biggest pot win to date (since I've only been at 3/6 for a week or so), which came last night:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO folds, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 4 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21 BB) 4 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 26 BB
Main Pot: 26 BB, between Hero, BB and UTG+1 > Pot won by Hero (26 BB).

Results:
BB has Ac 7c (two pair, sevens and fours).
UTG+1 has Kc 4c (three of a kind, fours).
Hero has 8h 6h (straight, nine high).
Outcome: Hero wins 26 BB.

[Jezebel]

I think it is better to have the feeling that luck may be playing a bigger role in my sucess or failure, than to believe that my skill is the overwhelming factor. Sure, skill is going to win out in the long run, but the long run is impossible to see while sitting at the table.

My point is that I think it wise to have a healthy respect for how long swings good or bad can last. Guys that don't respect this aspect of the game usually disappear fairly quickly.

Good luck and don't let a future downswing get to you. Reflect on this good run. Maybe even save some of your miracle hands in PT and replay them to remind yourself that you have gotten lucky also.

[Reef]

You called with 86s from middle position with only 2 limpers in already AND an aggressive preflop player behind you?!

[TommyTutone]

What would you recommend? I'm all for better playing, but folding this would surely have been bad, and I don't like raising with it since I don't know how often hands in general win (hence the comment saying as much in my first post).

[SomethingClever]

2 limpers... you've got a non-broadway suited one gapper in MP3...

And you seriously think folding would be bad?!??!? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Folding this surely would be standard.

[TommyTutone]

[ QUOTE ]
2 limpers... you've got a non-broadway suited one gapper in MP3...

And you seriously think folding would be bad?!??!? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Folding this surely would be standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate saying I did something because 'Sklansky said so', but in this case, unless I screwed up my notes, that is what I did. 86s is in grouping 6. IIRC (my notes are at home so I could very well be wrong), you should generally play the first 5 groups from middle position, adding 6 at a loose table, which this certainly was.

I would have easily folded to a raise in front of me, and had there been instead only one limper, I may have let it go too, but with two, plus blinds, I thought it was a playable hand.

[Al Schoonmaker]

You are extremely unusual. Far too many people believe that they play well, but lose because they are terribly unlucky.
Of course, they don't play that well, and they are not unlucky at all.
If you keep that attitude, I think your future results will be a pleasant "surprise."
Regards,
Al

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
AND an aggressive preflop player behind you?!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see any mention of player description of the players behind him, much less any of the players. What? Just because he raised the guy is aggressive? Please. If everyone would've just limped behind him would this change your opinion?

That said, the preflop limp is a little loose.

Nice river raise.

b

[bernie]

A table texture description would help in the determination of this limp. However, doing this once in a blue moon isn't going to kill your bankroll. And you collected quite nicely on it. You want a nice passive table for this hand. Both preflop and postflop. The main reason i said it was a little loose was because there was no table description given. So in that regard, not knowing the table, i fold.

As soon as you start seeing hands in terms of playability to a texture rather than 'because it's in group...' your game will improve even more.

b

[SomethingClever]

I agree it's not the worst limp in the world, but he said that "folding would surely be bad."

It's that statement that caught my eye, I guess.

If you have the right table texture, sure, it's not a bad limp. But I think a lot of the time, it's a fold.