Some Reasons Kerry Lost

[andyfox]

Here are some reasons it seems to me people decided to vote against John Kerry (as opposed to voting for George Bush):

-He was seen as a "flip-flopper": People saw him as somebody who would change his mind. The poorly worded statement about the $87 billion was symptomatic of why people had this impression and the president and vice president constantly harped on this.

-He was seen as weak compared to Bush: A major reason people voted for Bush was they saw him as a strong leader. Kerry tried to counteract this, but his positions on the war made people think he'd be less strong than Bush as president.

-He is a liberal: Having the most liberal voting record in the senate is a no-no in today's political climate where the word "liberal" is almost a dirty word.

-He ran a poor campaign: He didn't inspire people, nor did he stake out a key issue where he could beat the president. He tried to do it in on Iraq, but people saw Bush as someone they trusted more on the specific war in Iraq and on the more general war on terrorism.

-John Edwards: A complete bust. If anything, he took votes away. He couldn't even deliver his home state.

-Mrs. Kerry: While I don't think many people really care about the wife, she certainly didn't help. While I know very little about Laura Bush, she looks like the kind of person who, if you moved in next door, would come over with a welcome note and a home-baked pie; Mrs. Kerry would take a meeting and have her secretary send over her chauffer to ask you to not park your car so close to her BMW. This impression might be completely wrong, but my sense is a lot of people had it.

-Swift Boat Veterans: whether they were for truth or not, they certainly hurt Kerry. Kerry had himself to blame, IMO, for putting his service front and center ("John Kerry reporting for duty").

-People thought Kerry would raise their taxes: While Kerry continually said he would do so only if you made over $200,000 a year, his reputation as a liberal, his plan for new programs, and Bush and Cheney constantly saying otherwise, convinced people that it was so.

-He didn't do well in his acceptance speech: He was too sweaty and didn't get a big enough bounce. He didn't inspire confidence in enough people who might have been looking for an alternative to Bush.

-People didn't feel comfortable with him: This might be the most important thing of all. He came across as stiff and forced, too much PR and not enough human being.

[TomCollins]

I have a few more reasons.

-Michael Moore
-Alec Baldwin
-Bruce Springsteen

Americans hate being told what to do by Hollywood Elitists. Also, Moore took a LOT of credibility away from the Democrats to most Americans.

[texaspimp]

here here, Tom!

Good analysis Andy.

[adios]

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-He was seen as a "flip-flopper": People saw him as somebody who would change his mind. The poorly worded statement about the $87 billion was symptomatic of why people had this impression and the president and vice president constantly harped on this.

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Yeah the perception of being indecisive hurt him a lot IMO.

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-He was seen as weak compared to Bush: A major reason people voted for Bush was they saw him as a strong leader. Kerry tried to counteract this, but his positions on the war made people think he'd be less strong than Bush as president.

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See my comment above.

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-He is a liberal: Having the most liberal voting record in the senate is a no-no in today's political climate where the word "liberal" is almost a dirty word.

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I don't think this hurt him as much as the first two reasons but I think it certainly galvanized an anti-liberal faction opposed to "liberal" candidates.

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-He ran a poor campaign: He didn't inspire people, nor did he stake out a key issue where he could beat the president. He tried to do it in on Iraq, but people saw Bush as someone they trusted more on the specific war in Iraq and on the more general war on terrorism.

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Yeah he seemed to run a poor campaign, however, he came within 130,000 votes or so of winning the election when we objectively look at it. He lost in a Republican majority state by a small margin.

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-John Edwards: A complete bust. If anything, he took votes away. He couldn't even deliver his home state.


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Yeah we've discussed this before. In fairness to Kerry I don't think he really wanted Edwards on the ticket all that much. I think he was encouraged to put Edwards on the ticket for the sake of party unity which was probably a silly idea since the Dems were united anyway.

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-Mrs. Kerry: While I don't think many people really care about the wife, she certainly didn't help. While I know very little about Laura Bush, she looks like the kind of person who, if you moved in next door, would come over with a welcome note and a home-baked pie; Mrs. Kerry would take a meeting and have her secretary send over her chauffer to ask you to not park your car so close to her BMW. This impression might be completely wrong, but my sense is a lot of people had it.

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I think this was a slight factor.

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-Swift Boat Veterans: whether they were for truth or not, they certainly hurt Kerry. Kerry had himself to blame, IMO, for putting his service front and center ("John Kerry reporting for duty").

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Among veterans I think this hurt Kerry. He should have handled his military service much differently IMO. After the CBS fake documents story though I never saw very many Swift Boat ads. I saw quite a few before the CBS story.

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-People thought Kerry would raise their taxes: While Kerry continually said he would do so only if you made over $200,000 a year, his reputation as a liberal, his plan for new programs, and Bush and Cheney constantly saying otherwise, convinced people that it was so.

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I think you're right on this and I've posted about my feeling before on this.

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-He didn't do well in his acceptance speech: He was too sweaty and didn't get a big enough bounce. He didn't inspire confidence in enough people who might have been looking for an alternative to Bush.

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Yeah I agree.

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-People didn't feel comfortable with him: This might be the most important thing of all. He came across as stiff and forced, too much PR and not enough human being.

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Yeah I agree with this as well. Good analysis.

[Wake up CALL]

I would agree that Andy's analysis was good except for the fact that he said a few things like "seen as"and "people thought".

Andy he wasn't "seen as' a flip-floper he is one. He wasn't "ssen as" weak he is weak. People didn't "think" he would raise taxes we were sure of it. His $200,000 spin didn't hold water upon closer examination. His raising the top two tax rates would increase taxes for people making over $89,000 per year. More spin which cost him votes. Very few people are like you Andy and believe the government knows how to spend their money better than they do.

[andyfox]

It didn't matter whether he was a flip-flopper or not or whether he is weak or not. It matters how people see him. Bush campaigned in 2000 against nation-building. Now he's a nation-builder in two countries. But people either didn't see it as a flip-flop, or did and didn't care, or did and felt it is the right thing to do. He also campaigned on fiscal responsibility.

Kerry said over and over again he would only restore the old marginal tax rates on people making over $200,000 a year. No spin; it is what he said dozens of times.

You last comment is just plain silly. I believe the government wastes plenty of my money; everybody does, even those of us who voted for John Kerry. We just disagree with you over which expenses are wastes of money and which are not.

[Wake up CALL]

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Kerry said over and over again he would only restore the old marginal tax rates on people making over $200,000 a year. No spin; it is what he said dozens of times.


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The problem is not what he says but what he in fact does. As a Senator he:

Kerry Voted 98 Times For Tax Increases Totaling More Than $2.3 Trillion.
Kerry Voted At Least 126 Times Against Tax Cuts Totaling More Than $5.3 Trillion.
Rolling Back The Bush Tax Cuts Will Not Pay For Kerry’s $2 Trillion In New Spending.

Kerry Voted Against Amendment To FY 2004 Budget Resolution That Would Extend $1,000 Child Tax Credit Until 2013.
Kerry Sponsored And Voted For Motion To Kill Marriage Penalty Relief For Couples Earning Less Than $50,000 Per Year. Kerry Voted Against Eliminating Clinton-Instituted 4.3-Cent Tax On Transportation Fuels.

This in addition to the fact that he says the tax will only be placed on people earning above $200,000 per year but the plan he released shows that it raisies the top two tax rates which in fact does affect those earning above $89,000 per year.

You have in fact said you are in the above $200K tax bracket and are willing to pay higher taxes. What makes you think Kerry would have spent that money wisely? His voting record in the Senate does nat show that to be the case in the past.

[jcx]

Kerry lost simply because he was a very weak candidate. And he's from the Northeast. Most of middle America simply does not wish to be governed by an elitist New England snob (I am aware both Bushes were born in the Northeast, but they managed to shake off that mantle and convince America they were Texans). If the Dems were serious about winning they would have gone w/ Gephart. He'd have had a much better chance against Bush.

[vulturesrow]

Andy,

Nice post. I really think the single thing that hurt Kerry the most was his VP selection. I am convinced that having someone else on his ticket would have bolstered him in several close states.

[andyfox]

The problem can't be in what he does since he hasn't been president yet. The problem is in people's perceptions of what he would do, whether those perceptions are right or wrong. As I pointed out, Kerry is a liberal and people know he is a liberal and feared exactly what you feared. I don't think we're in disagreement here.

It was my perception that Kerry would have spent my tax money in a wiser fashion than Bush will. Your perception is that his voting record in congress confirms that he would not be wise; mine is that Bush's record in office confirms that he will not be wise.

My post listed several things I thought helped defeat Kerry that were negatives for Kerry (as opposed to those issues that helped defeat him that were positives for Bush). Your response indicates to me that, for you, some of those perceptions were valid.