Hand Analysis - Am I Getting Pot Odds to the Boat?

mannika · #1 11-01-2004, 12:16 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

CO ($46.7)
Hero ($73.19)
SB ($0)
BB ($64.25)
UTG ($36.25)
UTG+1 ($55.95)
UTG+2 ($53.05)
MP1 ($55.75)
MP2 ($53.95)
MP3 ($70.2)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, UTG (poster) checks.

Flop: ($5.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $3, MP1 calls $3, CO folds, Hero raises to $10, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $7.

Turn: ($28.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $15, MP1 raises to $30, Hero calls $15.

River: ($88.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 calls $14.75 (All-In), Hero calls $14.75.

Final Pot: $118
Main Pot: $118, between Hero and MP1. > Pot won by MP1 ($118).

Results in white below: 
SB has (three of a kind, sevens).
MP1 has Kh Qh (flush, ace high).
Hero has 7c 7d (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: MP1 wins $118. 

Once he raises on the turn, I figure I'm beat by the flush. My question here is, am I getting odds to the boat?

I have 10 outs here, and since I have him on the flush, there's 52-8 = 44 cards from which to choose (I'll ignore the possibility of him having the 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

Therefore, I'll take this down 10/44, or 22.7% of the time.

Basic pot odds would justify a call (i.e., 88.5*0.227 = $20.11 > $15)

However, if I factor in the fact that I'll probably end up calling him all-in on the river (the extra $15 seems to justify the possibility of him being on the lower set or having two pair), the implied odds are now $118*0.227 = $27 which does not justify my putting $30 into the pot.

So which is it?

Also, should I have folded the river, and was the remainder of my play okay?

xerostar · #2 11-01-2004, 12:36 AM

Here's even some better advice. If MP1 calls that huge flop raise, slow down. You're building the pot and you're not even sure if you have the best hand. Use your position in this case and check the turn. Then perhaps call the river for a cheap showdown, fold otherwise.

mannika · #3 11-01-2004, 12:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If MP1 calls that huge flop raise, slow down. You're building the pot and you're not even sure if you have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The intention of the raise was not for value, it was intended to weed out anyone drawing to a non-nut flush. In this case, perhaps I should have raised even more, as both players almost have odds to play at it.

tpir90036 · #4 11-01-2004, 12:13 PM

you have a ridiculously easy call on the turn. you are getting almost 5:1 on your money ($73.50:$15 = 4.9:1) and you are only a 3.5:1 dog to fill up. plus you are going to get the rest his stack if you do fill.

sadly you did not fill up....although you are getting 7:1 on the river to call so you only need to be good here around 13% of the time. will this be the case? i have no idea since i do not know this opponent. is it possible he was pushing a pair + a fludh draw and assed into two pair? could he be bluffing? i would probably make the crying call on the river getting 7:1 and expect to lose most of the time. hope it worked out for you....

-tpir

wdbaker · #5 11-02-2004, 05:55 AM

I think your probing bet on the flop was plenty, when he called i would have gone into check call mode, if you do that then I think you would have been getting the right odds to call but instead you kept pushing more of your money in which I think kind of screwed things up odds wise. I don't pretend I can tell you specifically how far off you were but I just know that I would have slowed way down. Should have taken the freebie on the turn when he checked.

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co