Key Hand #14: Pot Odds Call (against any two cards)

[Desdia72]

i had already established a pretty ok solid image at the table (at least that's what i thought considering this is still a $5 + $.50 SNG). there was a lot of limping and mini-raising (1XBB) going on not only through the last couple of orbits, but throught the whole SNG. the shortstack, MM6699, who had got caught in the fray of limping and playing too many 1XBB mini-raises, went all-in and it's folded to me with 4 5o. i call, figuring i'm up against any two cards. would this constitute a pot odds call? who makes this call and if not, why?

# 2 **************
PokerStars Game #816704013: Tournament #3230104, Hold'em No Limit -
Level V (75/150) - 2004/10/31 - 20:34:09 (ET)
Table '3230104 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: kylealankoch (3810 in chips)
Seat 2: Desdia72 (1787 in chips)
Seat 3: the_edster (2910 in chips)
Seat 4: thefinnman (1275 in chips)
Seat 8: MM6699 (600 in chips)
Seat 9: vicemt (3118 in chips)
kylealankoch: posts small blind 75
Desdia72: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Desdia72 [4h 5s]
the_edster: folds
thefinnman: folds
MM6699: raises 450 to 600 and is all-in
vicemt: folds
kylealankoch: folds
Desdia72: calls 450

[ChrisV]

54o wins 37.9% of the time against a purely random hand. This means that the call is slightly +CEV - your equity in the pot will be 483 chips compared to the 450 you call with.

However, with your stack size I believe that losing 450 chips is going to hurt you disproportionate to the amount winning the pot is going to help you. I think your $EV vs a random hand would be slightly negative.

The other (big) problem is that the raiser is not going to have anything like a random hand. He still has two hands to move allin but has chosen to move allin this hand because he likes his hand. You can therefore rule out hands like 52 and 42. Even a hand like K2 or Q3 is more or less impossible - Ax is plausible though. The vast, vast majority of the time you are looking at two overcards at a minimum and quite likely an overpair. This moves your hand firmly into the "fold" basket.

[ilya]

I think I'd let this one go. The pot odds are good, but not good enough to justify calling with a hand as bad as 45o, IMO.

[DCIAce]

I think it's pretty close.. I'd lean towards folding, though. I'd call if any of the following were a bit changed:
1) 45s instead of 45o.. couple % more equity against overcards
2) Guy pushing had 500 or less chips (350 or less to call)
3) If stack size was 2500+ to begin with

Anyways, I think a fold is best, You're getting less than 2-1 pot odds, and I think you win this hand about a third of the time. However, a call isn't bad.. I don't think it makes all that much difference, EV-wise.

[captZEEbo1]

People tend to over value "pot odds" in sngs I think. You don't want to cripple yourself, even if you are getting correct pot odds to call. If you are getting slightly more than correct pot odds to call, sometimes the correct play is still to fold. That's just my opinion anyways. One other factor is, you don't want to double up shortstacks when you don't have to. If he

btw: yeah, this is a clear fold, imo.

[citanul]

Des,

I'm folding here.

While the pot odds are probably there (others say they are and I'm really not interested in checking the odds or thinking about that too much), if you fold, you're still in fine shape, while if you call and lose, you are not in fine shape.

You're likely going to have lots of other chances if you pass on this one to take the initiative, grab some folding equity, and use your solid image. When you call an all in player in short stacked poker, you of course have no folding equity, and are merely playing for pot odds against your expected range of opponent's holdings.

Personally, if I were say, either a stack short enough that I expected to have no folding equity, or that it was unlikely I would pick up a hand before I lost my folding equity, or if I had a comfortably large stack so gambling off the 450 wouldn't make my stack under, oh, I dunno, say, 15BB or so, I'll call here almost every time. In one instance because the odds justify it and I need the double up, and in the other because the odds justify it and the loss doesn't hurt you too much.

I think that indeed, pot odds get overvalued alot of times in SNGS, while folding equity gets undervalued by the same players.

An important concept, which I hope I don't screw up in my sleepiness: Say you are given the opportunity to complete the action heads up against an all in opponent. Your call, if made, would be contributing 40% of the pot, and you expect that your pot equity is 40%. So it's a "fair gamble." However, you should turn down these gambles in many situations. Basically, your chip EV is static here, call or fold, right? You're putting in the same chips you Expect to get back. So, you should make this call in general when your stack depth is such that it would be advantageous to add variance, IE, short or big. You should fold when medium, since while comfortable, it is unneccessary to take gambles instead of trying to find good spots. Additionally, there are clearly percentage favorites you should fold away in the SNG setting for the same reasons.

At least that's what I think. There are, of course, many ways to play the SNGS, and at least a few ways to win at them, I think.

citanul

[mackthefork]

Like a lot of others I think this is close, but I probably just fold regardless of my stack size, I think the fact that you have just 12 x bb makes this a clear fold. Your stack is still playable, fold and catch him next time he does it.

Regards Mack

[Desdia72]

as you all know, i called, figuring i'd be up against any two cards...not necessarily pps. PS blessed me with the weaker hand, which rarely happens.

------------------------------------------------------------

*** FLOP *** [Th 3s As]
*** TURN *** [Th 3s As] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [Th 3s As 2h] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Desdia72: shows [4h 5s] (a straight, Ace to Five)
MM6699: shows [Kh Jd] (high card Ace)
MM6699 is sitting out
Desdia72 collected 1275 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1275 | Rake 0
Board [Th 3s As 2h 8d]
Seat 1: kylealankoch (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Desdia72 (big blind) showed [4h 5s] and won (1275) with a
straight, Ace to Five
Seat 3: the_edster folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: thefinnman folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: MM6699 showed [Kh Jd] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 9: vicemt (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Jason Strasser]

Marginal marginal.

The worse player you are, the more you should avoid this extremely marginal spot.

Of course, there are some spots (2:1 and better), where no player is good enough to justify a fold.

-Jason

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
The worse player you are, the more you should avoid this extremely marginal spot.


[/ QUOTE ]

Surely you mean "the better player you are...," right?