JJ, river play?

[elitegimp]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero...

here are my thoughts:
reads) I've been at this table for like an orbit and a half, so I have no idea what MP3 would 3-bet with

Reason to bet) I hopefully would have heard any Q or bigger pair here

Crappy reason not to bet) I've been the agressor this whole hand except the pre-flop 3-bet by MP2. Could he have AQ or KQs and be afraid of an over pair? Could he have KK and AA and be afraid of QQ? Classic monster under the bed syndrome, eh.

Other reason not to bet) The reasonable hands (I think) he would have 3-bet with are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ. I see 1 hand that I beat, and I'm not convinced he'd call a bet w/ AK. At this point, I think I'm committed to calling any bet/raise, and would rather call a potential bluff bet than call a raise.

other variables) We have caller-mc-callington in SB... maybe he caught a small pair and doesn't want to let go.

So what does it all add up to? What would you do without SB in the hand?

[bennyk]

I don't see MP2 having a Queen here. It seems like if you bet, MP2 will be folding AK quite often in this situation.

With that said, I don't think a bet is good because he won't be calling very often with any hands you beat. I think overall, if you bet here, either SB or MP2 is tabling a weak Queen or better enough times to make a bet unprofitable.

Also, if you check, MP2 might try to bluff on the end.

bk

[Piiop]

I think you should cross KQ off your list of 3-bet hands. Very few players will 3-bet with KQ, and if he was one I think you'd know about it by now. Also, AQ is also unlikely - more likely than KQ but still not very likely.

Since the Q, T, and 9 are all out there, the only hand you can beat is AK or possibly tie with the other JJ. It's possible that AK will call a bet, but not very probable. I'm not sure if he'll bet AK either, it depends on the player. It's also possible MP2 has KK and is scared of AA or QQ, some players are just like that.

You also have the SB to worry about. I'm sure he'll be calling you down with a weaker hand some of the time, but he did call 2.5 cold preflop and has called down so far so you still have to think about him.

I would check, and plan on calling 1 bet. If MP2 checks behind with AK, you really don't miss out on anything because it's unlikely he would've called with it. You might be losing a BB from the SB, but he'll have a Q sometimes too. If MP2 does bet, and you call and he shows you a super weak KK or AA, then good for you and too bad for him.

[jrz1972]

In theory I would bet out with the plan of folding to a raise. I would certainly call a bet from MP1, so I might as well go ahead and bet it myself.

In practice, SB often ends up showing me a Q in this situation. There are a lot of players who will just sit back and let you bet their hands for them, and if SB is the passive type, that may very well be the case here.

Given the lack of reads, I'll go ahead and bet for value, but I'm not totally optimistic.

[PokerIsLife]

I like jrz1972's line the best.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
In theory I would bet out with the plan of folding to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is raising you on the river. The 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] didn't change anything.

[ QUOTE ]
I would certainly call a bet from MP1, so I might as well go ahead and bet it myself.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just because you are calling a bet does not mean you should bet yourself. If you bet and are called by MP1, are you expecting to win? If you check, what hands will he bet that you will call and win? What hands will he check behind with that he would've called a bet from you and you would've won?

[HajiShirazu]

I would definately bet this river and expect MP1 to probably fold AK and to get called by SB's likely worse hand.