Downswing Blues

maxpowers21 · #1 10-31-2004, 09:40 PM

I've been a winning poker player online and am near certain I am a winning player at 5-10 party poker where i play. I was wondering how likely it is to experience a downswing over 40hrs online 4-tabling!!! So somewhere close to 250-300 hrs in live play i would guess. I'm down about 50BB over this time period after my last session, so around 38hrs i was at an 8BB downswing. Is this normal variance to experience over the long run for this swing to extend over 300 hours, I woudl think so but i'm still curious as to how often this might occur?

jrobb83 · #2 10-31-2004, 10:29 PM

Tell us how many hands. All the other info is pretty meaningless if we don't know how many hands the downswing is over.

TimM · #3 10-31-2004, 10:43 PM

I wrote an Excel sheet to answer these kinds of questions.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;o=&vc=1

Plus in your win rate, standard deviation, session length and session result, and it will calculate the chance of having a session this bad or worse.

dogmeat · #4 10-31-2004, 10:46 PM

I play 4500 hands a week, and had a 6-week streak where I broke even. If I was playing B&M and got 33 hands per hour that would come to (27,000 hands total) 818 hours of play. Yeah, that would suck.

I would never have believed a streak could last that long, but it did. FWIW, I was moving up a limit, but not playing the new limit exclusively. I had been averaging 2.45BB/hour at $2/$4 previously (almost 150,000 hands).

Hang in there - this too shall pass.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

bdk3clash · #5 11-01-2004, 12:31 AM

Losing all · #6 11-01-2004, 12:57 AM

Very nice. Looks just like the swing in my rape cellar.

Monty Cantsin · #7 11-01-2004, 12:59 AM

/mc

Losing all · #8 11-01-2004, 01:53 AM

Pure genius. This can be used and re-used on 10+% of 2+2 threads for the next 20 years.

bdk3clash · #9 11-01-2004, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Very nice. Looks just like the swing in my rape cellar.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow is this not funny. I'd delete my original post if I could just to disassociate myself.

Unless it's immediately preceeded by the word "prison," "rape" just isn't funny.

Losing all · #10 11-01-2004, 02:51 AM

didn't mean to offend. btw- what's so funny about small time non-violents getting ass hammered?