33 weak draw - correct?

Ritter · #1 10-31-2004, 05:44 PM

I think I played this by the book (at least Ed Millers book)... thoughts compared to mine?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

I will limp with any PP in an unraised pot - usually not less than 77 up front though. Wasn't thrilled about the raise from the button, but hey, if I catch my set, looks to be a huge pot!

Flop: (13 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Ick. Missed my set. I count... 2 outs (threes) and hey, there's a backdoor straight draw... I think of two things from SSH...#1 Give a backdoor draw credit for an out and a half (okay - in this case I'll give it one due to the potential flush and #2 Try to win big pots. So... pots giving me 17.5 to 1 - I only need 14.3 with 3 outs AND my call closes the action - CALL

Turn: (9 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Curiouser and Curiouser - picked up my draw...Now I have 6 outs? No - don't want to count the 5s - ok 5 outs... Pots giving me 12 to 1, only need 8.2 with 5 outs...CALL

River: (13 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

WHAP! I'm thinking the buttons got a big ace, maybe trips - either way, let's go for the CR!

Final Pot: 21 BB

The BB screamed at me for about 10 minutes before leaving - just double checking they weren't stupid calls and that I'm counting correctly...thanks.

Rubeskies · #2 10-31-2004, 06:11 PM

I think you over-values your back-door straight outs. Back-door flushes are worth 1.5 outs but back-straight outs vary greatly depending on the board and the type of draw. I'd say because you have a one card straight draw, not to the nuts, with a two flush on the board, it is probably worth less then 1 out on the flop, maybe around .63

Nick C · #3 10-31-2004, 06:24 PM

One thing that's interesting to me in this situation is that some of your outs interfere with each other. For instance, once you catch the ace on the turn, you can no longer be so sure how you feel about a 3 on the river. And if you do catch a 3 on the turn, it could give someone else a redraw to a straight (or even a made straight). Also, you do have to worry about the two-flush board.

I suspect the flop call is very close. But since I'm closing the action and I have the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I probably would make it too.

Nick C · #4 10-31-2004, 07:02 PM

It just occurred to me that probably we should take into account the small chance that Hero is ahead on the flop, too.

maxpowers21 · #5 10-31-2004, 07:27 PM

The chance that hero is ahead on this flop, in addition to reverse implied odds for the number of players seing the turn give hero about 0% pot equity of winning with a pair of 3's unimproved to the river.

Nick C · #6 10-31-2004, 08:19 PM

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The chance that hero is ahead on this flop, in addition to reverse implied odds for the number of players seing the turn give hero about 0% pot equity of winning with a pair of 3's unimproved to the river.

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Good point. And the only way to try to improve the chances of the 3's holding up (if by some chance they're good) -- betting into the preflop raiser in the hopes that he'll raise with overcards -- (1) probably won't thin the field sufficiently anyway, and (2) seems pretty reckless, since Hero could easily be behind and has a weak draw.

I still think the flop call is close. Would you make it?

jordanx · #7 10-31-2004, 08:58 PM

The call is thin, at a loose passive table where implied odds if you hit your set or straight are higher with many players calling down, I would do the same thing.

Nice hand.

Ritter · #8 10-31-2004, 09:00 PM

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I still think the flop call is close. Would you make it?

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I agree that it is close - but when it's THAT close (is the straight draw .63 of an out or .27 of an out?) don't you swing to a call anyway in this size pot?

Nick C · #9 10-31-2004, 09:13 PM

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I still think the flop call is close. Would you make it?

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I agree that it is close - but when it's THAT close (is the straight draw .63 of an out or .27 of an out?) don't you swing to a call anyway in this size pot?

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I am more inclined to make calls that I think are slightly loose when the pot is big. I don't know whether this is a fault in my play or not. I do think the implied odds for loose calls goes up when the pot is big, because some of my opponents may see the size of the pot and be inclined to make VERY loose calls. On the other hand, these loose calls from opponents do also increase the chance, in many cases, that I'll hit my hand on the turn and then lose to a redraw on the river.