Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?

Redmen62 · #1 10-31-2004, 01:39 AM

I've made the move over to small-stakes limit play recently, but with the pot averages looking decent for once, I decided to sit at my old gravy train for the evening, Party $50NL.

If some others would run through their line of thinking facing the flop actions, I think it might be interesting.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 ($31.85)
MP2 ($90.65)
MP3 ($60.5)
CO ($110.25)
Button ($80.05)
Hero ($106.05)
BB ($34)
UTG ($46.5)
UTG+1 ($66.4)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($12) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $1, MP3 calls $1, CO folds, Button raises to $6, Hero calls $6, BB folds, MP2 calls $5, MP3 raises to $58.5 (All-In), Button raises to $78.05

* The action itself may seem pretty straightforward, I'm more interested in how others would calculate their likely outs, and pot equity/odds. Also, It's worth noting that I had no specific reads on the two key players, but this had been a high-action table previously.

xerostar · #2 10-31-2004, 05:18 AM

Call call call! Reasons 1) It's party poker so by default one of those is a complete moron [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] 2) Even if 1 isn't true, you have a straight-flush draw, one of which will come about 50% of the time. Plus 2 over cards for a possible extra 6 outs for a high pair. I think its even correct to call heads up, but three way FOR SURE!

amoeba · #3 10-31-2004, 12:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call call call! Reasons 1) It's party poker so by default one of those is a complete moron [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] 2) Even if 1 isn't true, you have a straight-flush draw, one of which will come about 50% of the time. Plus 2 over cards for a possible extra 6 outs for a high pair. I think its even correct to call heads up, but three way FOR SURE!

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call too but I don't think his 2 over outs are good.

Also would suck if he was up against a set and a nut flush draw.

cockandbull · #4 10-31-2004, 01:30 PM

I would think the hands would be an overpair and either trips or two pars, so

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=583672
pokenum -h kc qc - jd th - qd qh -- 8c js tc
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Qc 437 48.39 448 49.61 18 1.99 0.494
Jd Th 345 38.21 558 61.79 0 0.00 0.382
Qd Qh 103 11.41 782 86.60 18 1.99 0.124

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=583667
pokenum -h kc qc - 8d 8s - ad as -- 8c js tc
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Qc 331 36.66 572 63.34 0 0.00 0.367
8s 8d 545 60.35 358 39.65 0 0.00 0.604
As Ad 27 2.99 876 97.01 0 0.00 0.030

Redmen62 · #5 11-01-2004, 04:56 AM

Yeah, it's a pretty easy call. What I was interested in was how others would evaluate their outs, given that a made straight/shared straight outs/made set are all distinct possibilities. It would interest me to know if others considered outs/pot odds to break down the same way I did.

For anyone keeping score I called and the hit the flush on the turn, both opponents had Q9 for the flopped straight.

cockandbull · #6 11-01-2004, 06:05 AM

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=584773
pokenum -h qh 9h - qd 9d - kc qc -- 8c js tc
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh 9h 0 0.00 456 50.50 447 49.50 0.245
Qd 9d 0 0.00 456 50.50 447 49.50 0.245
Kc Qc 456 50.50 435 48.17 12 1.33 0.509

Yads · #7 11-01-2004, 02:50 PM

Even if your over card outs are no good, you're a money favourite with 15 outs heads up. I would call in a heartbeat.

Jonny · #8 11-01-2004, 03:29 PM

easy call, even heads up, since there is dead money in the pot already, and you have 15 clean outs.

Wayfare · #9 11-01-2004, 03:31 PM

Fold. Three reasons:

1: Your flush outs are not good.

2: Someone may have a set, in which case your EV is even less positive.

3: Someone who plays badly will soon have a large stack and you want to preserve your $80 stack to take it from them more quickly.

The posters thus far are too dogmatic about their all in standards. I do not know if the call is EV, but if it is it is very slighly EV and will make it harder to make a large +EV decision later.

Yads and Johnny are presumptuous in their out-counting. The action suggests both a monster made hand and a nut flush draw.