How strong of a draw is this?

[Brian]

Party 10/20, no reads. 6 limpers, SB completes, I check in the SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The Flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Is this a strong draw? I'm having trouble figuring out how I should play this, and how many bets I should call on the Flop, etc. What happened to follow later.

-Brian

[Haupt_234]

It depends a lot on the action, but if I was put in this situation I would check/call a single flop bet if I was close to closing the action. Any more and i'm out.

Haupt_234

[Trix]

It will depend alot on the action, but I´m not betting it.
How many bets you should call also depends on the action, but I´d see the turn pretty often here I guess.

[Tosh]

I would value it the same as an OESD on a 2 flush board.

[Trix]

one card or two card.

[Brian]

I checked the Flop, someone in EP bet, and I called after about 3 or 4 callers. The Turn was a brick, something like an offsuit 8. I checked again, the same EP bet, but this time someone raised. I quickly dumped my hand. Turns out the EP player had 99, and the raiser had A8o, and neither of them had a Diamond. I still felt that dumping was the right play, but hated folding such a monster draw. Just wanted to check here to be sure. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

-Brian

[jeffseib]

There are 8 SB on the flop. You have around 14 outs (9-D, 2-A & 2-6 [figure only win with str8 1/2 the time] and 1-Q [spiking a Q for TP is not very strong here]), giving you around 2.5:1 odds. This is a strong draw. After a bet and three or four limpers on the flop, you could have raised. You had enough pot equity to make a raise ok, plus it might have allowed you to take a free card off when a blank appears on the turn (you had after all CRed the flop) as your check on the turn might be interpreted as preparing for another CR.

If you had CRed the flop, there would now be at least 7 BB. If you checked and there were a bet and a raise (10BB), you have the pot odds to call the 2BB (5:1) esp. if you can close the betting.

On the river, if you hit, bet it, or either check and fold or check and raise, if your opponents bluff a lot.

I know this is differnt from what everyone else said on this thread. Please let me know if you think that my reasoning is incorrect.

[Brian]

Hi jeff,

The problem with your logic is that you are assuming the Flush will be good if you hit it. If anyone has the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], your Flush draw is worthless, and may actually wind up costing you a bit if you hit. The straight draw is of questionable value as well with 3 to the Flush on the board as well as its being only a 1 card straight draw, meaning you may have to split the pot some of the times you hit.

A check-raise on the Flop won't get you a free card, and with how dubious your draw is, it won't be for value, either.

Overall, I agree with the others that the best plan is to check, take a look at the action, and then either see the Turn and River cards with caution or fold if it's multiple bets back to you.

-Brian

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Check, and depending where the bet comes from, call or raise. If the bet comes from LP, you may clear the field and get a cheap look at the river.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't think either draw is so questionable as to preclude calling the turn getting close to 5-1 unless you have a real good feeling that it'll get 3-bet behind you.

I think you have to see the river.