#1
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Fold or Call???
Playing 5-10 PLH at Hawaiian Gardens for about 4 hours and am up $500. I have $1500 in front in the SB. 3 players limp and I raise the pot to $50 with QQ, BB calls and 2 more call, I have everyone covered except BB who has about $3K and is one of those young internet player types who plays pretty decent.
Flop comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I come out and bet the pot of $200, BB calls quickly, others fold Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I bet $400, BB raises to put me all in, I have about $900 left what's your play? -D.J. |
#2
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Re: Fold or Call???
This is really so player dependent it is hard to answer. What hands have you seen this guy play so far? Anyway, I'll take a shot.
Presumably he has one of two hands: FH or flush draw. If the former you have on average about 3 outs (2 vs 99, 4 vs 33), so you win about 1/15. If the latter he has say 12 outs (3 aces + 9 clubs if he has the nut flush draw which he should have to call that flop bet), so he wins about 1/4. Let x be the probability that he has the boat. Then based on these rough estimates, if you call you win 2300*x*1/15 + 2300*(1-x)*3/4 - 900*x*14/15 - 900*(1-x)*1/4. The breakeven probability x is about 70%. So if he has the flush draw more than 30% of the time you have a call. Will he have it that often, I doubt it but you've seen the guy play. Also, could he have AA here or 98? He would raise those on the flop I think, but who knows. Often a quick call indicates a draw, so maybe that pushes it to call. Any more info on this guy? |
#3
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Re: Fold or Call???
good analysis. i would add in that he could have an OESD, or maybe an OESD in addition to a flush draw. also possible that he has TT/JJ. i'd probably make the crying call.
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#4
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Re: Fold or Call???
Hey D.J.,
Quick call on the flop there sounds like a draw. He knows exactly what you have. If he flopped a set or two pair, he's probably going to put you to the test on the flop before one of a trillion turn cards makes the board too scary to get his action. Or, he'll at least pause to think about it. If he insta-called, he's probably weak. So, that means the 8 probably didn't help him. I think he wants you to fold. Call (but don't be surprised if he has a boatload of outs). Again, when your opponent knows your cards and you don't know his, you're going to be put in tough spots. Sometimes, that means backing a hand that, ideally, you wouldn't want to play for all of your money. I think this is one of those hands. Hope it worked out... ML4L |
#5
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Re: Fold or Call???
[ QUOTE ]
Quick call on the flop there sounds like a draw. He knows exactly what you have. [/ QUOTE ] This is very important. Since it's pretty obvious you have an overpair, you have to think about what this guy thinks of you? Does he think you'll lay down JJ-AA here to a raise? If so then he probably wants you to fold and you should call. Depends a lot on your read of how he reads you and your image at the table. Justin A |
#6
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Re: Fold or Call???
I don't feel too bad about my call now, all of those things were going through my head, and I thought there was a good enough chance of winning so I risked everything to see that he had 99, I said ni han and went home.
-D.J. |
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