Axs with a raise on board

[elitegimp]

This seems to happen to me a ton -- I get Axs in mid-late position, am all set to call, and then somebody acting before me raises. Assuming my pattern-mapper is in the shop, is it ever a good play to call 2 cold against a typical party raiser?

On the one hand, my A is probably dominated (if not by the raiser, then by a typical Party-ite who might cold-call two with Ayo because an A is a good card) - on the other hand, if I hit the flush I should be able to take a decent pot. So if I'm playing for the flush only, what odds do I want to see the flop? Or should I just wait for a better opportunity to put my chips in the pot?

Of course this post was the result of me folding A6s and then seeing my flush hit on the turn (and a king-high flush take a 15 BB pot), but I've also been in the situation where I fold and see a QQJ (none my suit) flop... so this isn't totally a results-oriented post.

[edthayer]

Flushes hit 6% of the time, and still lose to full houses occasionally. Usually fold Ax suited against a raise.

[Dangergirl]

Same here, in middle position with Axs against a raise, I would fold it.

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
Flushes hit 6% of the time, and still lose to full houses occasionally. Usually fold Ax suited against a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This number looked way too low to me, but I just calculated it (which I should have done instead of posting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) and got 5.7% for the board showing a 3-flush in my suit and 6.4% for having 3 to 5 of my suit on the board... so thanks for making me double check that, and I'll never doubt you again

[JDErickson]

I fold in MP unless the raiser is a maniac, then I may raise to isolate.

What about in the SB or BB? What are people thoughts of calling if lots of callers?

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold in MP unless the raiser is a maniac, then I may raise to isolate.

What about in the SB or BB? What are people thoughts of calling if lots of callers?

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like you're good 5% of the time (rounding down because of possible boats / running flush you may not call a flop bet to see), so you need 19:1 to call... so if you're BB and _everyone_ calls the raise it might be worthwhile. Of course, I'm probably discounting things in the wrong direction / not accounting for flopping trips / etc. I guess I'd call a raise from the BB with like 6 or 7 people in the pot and call from the SB with 8+ people. But seriously, those are arbitrary numbers I pulled out of a very stinky location.

[John White]

I think that this post is relevant, as is this one.

[TBone]

Easy fold man.

Don't think of the time your flush hit. Think of all the times the flush draw doesn't hit. Then think of all the times your flush draw doesn't hit, but an Ace does and you lose cause your hand is dominated.

Now, you'll know to fold next time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

T

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this post is relevant, as is this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! In this particular case, I was hoping to get a little discussion as to why this is a good fold (honestly, this has prob come up like 20 times in recent memory, and this was the only time I would have won... so even if I were results oriented, I made the right play [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) -- seeing the 6% number is all I wanted, and as noted I should've calculated that instead of posting.

I had seen the "cleaning up the forum" post, but hadn't really thought it through... the preflop chart is totally money and I missed it when it came around in September so I really appreciate that link.