Big Draw versus Weak Home MTT Field

[DonT77]

Here's a hand from last night that had me questioning my play-

Home MTT at a friend of a friend's house; first time with this group of guys. 24 Players including a lot of new players I’m told (<3 months exp.) and just a couple of guys that can play the game well. Overall a +EV lineup. The payout structure is top-weighted: 4th gets 5%, 3rd gets 10%, 2nd gets 25%, and 1st gets 60%.

Level 5, blinds are 250/500, average stack is 11500, 21 players remaining - 3 tables with 7 players each. I'm in the BB with t14000 and I get 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

UTG folds
UTG+1 (An inexperienced LAG with t3000 who has shown down hands like 63o) calls
UTG+2 (Seems like an experienced LAG; I can't tell if he is a great player or just lucky with his aggression; he has shown hands like Q2o after getting everybody to fold with a board like AT777 + possible flush, he has t20000) calls
MP1 - folds
Cutoff - (a Friend of Mine, a pretty good player, and dangerous because you never know when he's making a play for the pot or if he has a real hand, has t12000) calls
Button - folds
SB - (a Tight newby who calls too much with thin draws, t3000) calls
BB - checks.

flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players, pot = t2500)

SB - checks
BB - I have an OESD, a Flush Draw, and a Straight Flush Draw. With the pot at t2500 already, it represents about 18% of my stack, so I think about pushing t13500 - but with 2 weak players and 1 unknown player to act behind me I feel that the chances of getting called with something as small as bottom pair are more than I want to bear. This is a tourney that I really want to avoid going all-in if I can because generally the field is pretty weak. I’m also thinking that if I put in a small bet one of the 2 EP LAGs will probably raise me, so I check. (Comments?)
UTG+1 bets t1000 - this bet means nothing to me, because we've already seen this guy bet with nothing several times.
UTG+2 raises to t2000 - this guy has already shown us bluffs when he's muscled us out of the pot, so this bet is suspect too - but you wonder when he's going to get a real hand and capitalize on his table image.
Cutoff calls t2000. Even though I know this guy, I have no idea what kind of hand he would call t2000 with, except probably a set (slow playing) or a high flush draw.
SB folds.
BB - with the pot now at t7500, I figure I have the implied odds to call t2000 with just my OESD outs plus I have 9 outs to a flush that I'm not sure about. Again I think about pushing my last t13500 to win the t7500, but against 3 other players in a pretty weak game where I have good reads on 4 of the 6 players at my table, I decide to call and see the turn. (Comments?)
UTG+1 calls.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players, pot = t10500)

BB checks - using the same logic as above, I check to see what develops behind me.
UTG+1 checks
UTG+2 bets 4000 (did the ace help him, or did he flop something crazy like 2 pair with 93o, or is he trying to buy the pot again?)
Cutoff calls 4000 (by now I'm sure in my mind that this guy has the nut flush draw, otherwise I'd expect him to be raising here)
BB calls – Now I'm thinking my flush outs are no good, but I still have 6 outs to a Straight plus 2 outs to a Straight Flush that could rake a huge pot. With the pot at t18500, I decide to call t4000 thinking I have both the pot odds and the implied odds to do so. I think about pushing my last t11500, but now the chances of getting called are way too high IMO.
UTG+1 folds.

River is no help

UTG+2 goes all-in
Cutoff and BB fold.
UTG+2 wins 22500

I lost t6000 of my t14000 stack chasing a draw, but at the time each decision seemed correct. Agree or disagree?

[Ezcheeze]

Folding at each choice would have been ludicrous. I think your reasons for not pushing on the flop are good enough since you probably get called by a better flush draw. You lost alot of chips but it was more than worth it as you were being laid huge odds.

Ezcheeze

[sofere]

I like calling all streets. Going all in on the flop would've been too risky IMO, especially with no fold equity and it seems like you can beat them later on. It looks like you were getting good pot odds for the straight and straight flush draws (ignoring the flush draw cause its a good chance you're up against another draw). Also if you hit the straight or the straightflush I'm sure you would've been able to get all of UTG+2s money in the middle so u have added implied odds.

Personally, I always play big draws pretty passively against LAGs if I'm getting decent pot odds because the implied odds far outweigh the fold equity of semibluffing.

[DonT77]

Thanks for the feedback guys - I don't feel so bad now. Anybody else play this differently?

Anyway, UTG+2 won the huge pot and became the chip leader. As it turned out he was a very good player (esp. at reading weakness) and not just lucky. My remaining t8000 dwindled down to t4500 when I finally went all-in with KQs and blinds at 1000/2000 - I was called by 3 players and won a great 4-way pot when a Q flopped and a K came on the river. Later I went all-in over 2 players with 77. UTG was about to bust, and was called by a LAG (the chip leader guy I spoke of earlier) so I re-raised to isolate myself with UTG but again found myself in a 4-way pot. I flopped a 7 for a set and then coasted into the heads up finals against the chip leader. He had me outchipped by 9-1 and with the blinds getting really high I went all-in twice in a row and lost the 2nd hand finishing in 2nd place.

[SossMan]

Your hand loses a lot of value if the turn blanks out, so I would find a way to get all in on that flop. I prefer checkraising all in on the flop vs. this lineup. You have the LAG on your left who will bet, the others are likely to call since the LAG did the betting...this is the spot where you push and punish their laggy ways. While you may not have as much FE as you would like, your stack is big enough to make them consider folding. Either way, unless you happen to be up against exactly a bigger flush draw and a pair, and they both call, you are very +EV in this spot. Even if you get called by just a bigger flush draw (say ATclubs), you now have 14 outs twice and are still a slight favorite.

With the rare OESFD or the more common Flush draw plus overcards, I look to find a way to get all in on the flop with some FE.

[DonT77]

Hey Soss,

Initially I thought about check-raising the flop, but when UTG+1 bet, UTG+2 raised, and a solid player in the cutoff called I reconsidered (chickened out?). Another reason that I didn't check-raise in this spot was because I didn't think that the weaker players would respect a check-raise as much as the normal MTT players I face and also because weaker players don't pay attention to table image as much as others - so they wouldn't differentiate a check-raise from me (TAG) from a LAG min-raise.

Does the fact that I'm against supposed weaker opponents change the degree of +EV I'm looking for in a play? Certainly if I'm against a table of 2+2ers I'm playing anything that is +EV, but against 4.5 players out of 6 that I should beat by grinding it out - shouldn't I wait for bigger +EV situations?

Thanks,
Don T

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the fact that I'm against supposed weaker opponents change the degree of +EV I'm looking for in a play? Certainly if I'm against a table of 2+2ers I'm playing anything that is +EV, but against 4.5 players out of 6 that I should beat by grinding it out - shouldn't I wait for bigger +EV situations?



[/ QUOTE ]

well, it increases the range of hands that you will get called with....without doing extensive calculations, I'm not sure if that's good or bad for EV in this hand. Like I said, it would be hard to have -EV with a push here. Even up against A9 and a nut flush draw, you would have 8 outs twice (2:1), getting more than that on your money...and that's worst case scenario.
EV is EV, and even against a bunch of monkeys, I don't think you should be giving up too much of it. Very marginal situations should be passed up, but I don't think this is really marginal at all.


-SossMan

[DonT77]

Thanks for your thoughts Soss.