Heads-Up Win Percentage?

[luvrhino]

After another Heads-Up loss in a $215 SnG, i started pondering the discrepancy between my Heads Up record in $215s (a mediocre 10-9) and $55s (an unsustainably good 24-6). I ascribe the difference to mostly being sample size, luck, and the fact that a few times in $215s i found myself holding on to a thread, just eeking out 2nd over 3rd, whereas i've only done that once or twice in the $55s. Anyway, i was wondering what Heads-Up winning percentage was common for people in the low 40s% ITM, ~35% ROI, so that i know when i should concentrate for leaks there.

[poindexter]

Are you super tight on the bubble or do you take more chances? I think 10-9 would be a very good record for someone who plays super tight on the bubble. If you take more chances in order to increase your chance for 2nd or 1st then you will need a better win percentage to make up for the times you go out in 4th. Often times the chip leader is that guy who is more aggressive then he should be and had some luck on his side. He risked a lot to be chip leader and you played smart poker to be 2nd or 3rd in chips. He will win more often then not because of his chip lead. Have you kept track of stack sizes heads up? I bet you go in as a dog more often then not. I’ve also had very good HU stats in the 50's but this is the 200's. LAG player is much better HU here.

[luvrhino]

I haven't kept track of stack sizes, but i'm much looser as the blinds go up. As an indicator, i have more 5ths and 6ths than 2nd and 3rds. As you've probably noticed from playing me, i'm a bit of a tight-ass early...

[poindexter]

I am the same way but not a loose as you late in the tournament. My stats are not great heads up but my ITM is very good. I’m not saying your way is wrong, if it works for you great. Yesterday I was in third with 900 and blind position against 4th who had $800. I uncharacteristically raised KQ into 2nd place BB (a $200 regular) Gambling that he didn’t have a premium hand and would fold any non-premium hand as any smart player would. I was right he didn’t have a premium hand! But wrong about his calling standards and his skill level. He calls with Axo and reraises me all in on a Kxx flop. The turn brings the 2nd A and I go out in 4th. This is why I don’t play loose later in the sngs.

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
He calls with Axo and reraises me all in on a Kxx flop. The turn brings the 2nd A and I go out in 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you want to be up against him in this situation if he plays like this? He was dead to 3 outs and got lucky - wouldn't you play it the same next time?

[poindexter]

not chance in hell. The only reason I even made this move is because I thought he was a good player and who respected me and would only call with a premium hand.

[Irieguy]

One factor that people fail to consider when evaluating 2 and 3-handed stats is the fact that, over time, the quality of your short-handed opponents will be much better than the quality of the 10-handed field.

So, while a 40% ITM is 10% better than "average," you probably can't expect to be 10% better than your HU opponent on average. I think 1/3 of that is the upper limit of sustainability. So if you are a winning player, you probably can't do much better or worse than a 47% - 52% HU win rate.

Over very large samples, your 1st/2nd/3rd percentages will be very similar. It's nice if your 1sts are the most common... but they won't be by much.

Irieguy

[jerrybai125]

My heads up win percentage in the 215s is 60% after 700 tourneys, but I think thats due more to the case that when it gets down to heads up I usually will have more chips than my opponent, but that also leads me to get a lot of 3rds.