#1
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Big draws.
In the money in 1k+ person $5 tourney on pstars, I am playing to win, avg stack was 18kish around 95 people left. Villain was a weaker player pushing around his big stack till he got caught a few times and went from 50k-28k. I have been buying alot of pots so my image at table is probably a little loose.
PokerStars Game #805798090: Tournament #3115779, Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2004/10/27 - 22:58:54 (ET) Table '3115779 28' Seat #4 is the button Seat 1: Marathon_Man (46066 in chips) Seat 3: lboogie1415 (16180 in chips) Seat 4: chipsalot (3979 in chips) Seat 5: gonzo16 (13385 in chips) Seat 6: riders23 (26757 in chips) Seat 7: BH217 (13419 in chips) is sitting out Seat 8: crazy4cards (9358 in chips) Seat 9: paulr453 (28498 in chips) Marathon_Man: posts the ante 75 lboogie1415: posts the ante 75 chipsalot: posts the ante 75 gonzo16: posts the ante 75 riders23: posts the ante 75 BH217: posts the ante 75 crazy4cards: posts the ante 75 paulr453: posts the ante 75 gonzo16: posts small blind 600 riders23: posts big blind 1200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to riders23 [Jh Qh] BH217: folds crazy4cards: calls 1200 paulr453: calls 1200 Marathon_Man: folds lboogie1415: folds chipsalot: folds gonzo16: folds riders23: checks *** FLOP *** [8d Th 2h] BH217 has returned riders23: bets 3600 crazy4cards: folds paulr453: raises 23623 to 27223 and is all-in Me and my brother have differing opinions, I was wondering what some of you would do here. Thanks |
#2
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Re: Big draws.
Anyone? Clear fold or clear call or what?
thanks |
#3
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Re: Big draws.
looks to me like a pretty easy fold. unless you actually think he's lost his mind gambling, your chance of hitting the flush even with over cards, doesn't seem to warrant risking it all here.
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#4
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Re: Big draws.
If he just lost several big pots and appears to be on tilt, I might consider a call here.
Did you think your overs were good? If so, then I think you should call here if you read him as being on tilt. Otherwise, it's a fold. The problem is that you don't want to risk your tournament life when you don't know how clean your outs are. I think that bet stinks of weakness. He might actually have a better flush draw than you, which would be very bad news if you called. Tough spot, but without a very solid read on how tilted/crazy the guy is, I'd fold. Did you see how he built his stack up? Was he playing well or was he a lucky-aggressive-maniac type? J. |
#5
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Re: Big draws.
well, i forgot about the gutshot draw, but I would still fold.
However, saying that, if you put him on something like AT, with the Ah, your EV works out like this; pokenum -h jh qh - ah tc -- 2h 8c th Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Th 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qh Jh 561 56.67 429 43.33 0 0.00 0.567 Tc Ah 429 43.33 561 56.67 0 0.00 0.433 numbers don't change much even if you up against pocket jacks, so appearantly a call would be better. |
#6
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Re: Big draws.
I don't like calling all my chips when there's a 99.999% chance that I'm behind.
You might have 19 outs (9 hearts, 4 9s, 3Js, 3Qs), but you might have only 4-8 that are clean (if he's on a bigger flush draw, or holding TJ or TQ). IMO, this is an extremely easy fold. |
#7
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Re: Big draws.
Easy fold...play at him the same way when you get a hand...
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#8
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Re: Big draws.
Hypothetically, how about same situation except you have Kh? or Ah? In other words you still have 2 overcards with gutshot straight draw and are 4 flush w/no straight flush draw. So Instead of drawing to the 3rd nut flush, you're drawing to top or 2nd nut. Any thoughts?
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