Who folds QQ here

OldLearner · #1 10-25-2004, 12:25 PM

This was a 20+2 MTT at Party last night. There were 28 players remaining at the time and we had just finished the 3rd (or 4th break...can't remember). I think I was pretty close to middle of the pack (14th) with my T34844

I thought this hand was worth posting since it involved the 2 biggest stacks at our table. I had been playing with the biggest stack for at least 45 minutes. He was playing solid as the big stack with 2-3x raises about twice an orbit. Out of the ~10 times he did this he never had to show down and layed down hands to big resistance. The other big stack had just been moved to the table so I had no read on him.

Another important part of the equation was that I got the "Establishing Connection" message and once I was reconnected, I had about 15 seconds left to make my decision.

The big stack was doing this often enough that he could be raising here with a lot of hands. When the 2nd largest stack pushed all-in the first thing I thought was AK. I only had a few seconds to decide and I quickly discounted AA/KK, thinking that he would raise less to get some play with one of those hands.

It ends up my read was pretty good. Question is, do you make the all-in call here thinking you are probably in a horserace? I could've easily waited and moved up in the money, but if I took this pot down (T90688) I'm now in 2nd place and looking real good for some decent cash.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t6000 (8 handed)

UTG+1 (t19752)
MP1 (t166737)
MP2 (t83556)
Hero (t34844)
Button (t31266)
SB (t51554)
BB (t18952)
UTG (t49030)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to t12000, MP2 raises to t83556 (All-In), Hero calls t34844 (All-In), Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Flop: (t139400) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t139400) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t139400) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t139400

Results in white below: 
MP2 has Ks Ah (two pair, kings and jacks).
Hero has Qs Qh (two pair, queens and jacks).
Outcome: MP2 wins t139400.

davidross · #2 10-25-2004, 01:12 PM

Easy Easy call. First of all, you're almost certainly a favorite. Worst case he has AK and you're a 55/45 favorite, best case he has AQ or JJ and you're a big favorite. I agree there is little chance he plays AA or KK like this (although you could get really unlucky and the big stack actually had a big hand this time). Second of all you're not just playing to double up, you're playing for the original raisers 12K, plus the blinds plus your double up. Folding here would be a big mistake.

holman3rd · #3 10-25-2004, 01:54 PM

Post deleted by holman3rd

MLG · #4 10-25-2004, 01:56 PM

If you absolutely know that he has AK, 100% of the time you should still call. You are a 55/45 fav or so, with a lot of overlay from the pot. When you aren't on the bubble or in the money the idea that you should avoid other big stacks isn't really true. Its the easiest way to continue to get a lot of chips. Just remember your trying to get all of the chips by the end. Easy all here.

holman3rd · #5 10-25-2004, 01:59 PM

Post deleted by holman3rd

Rick Diesel · #6 10-25-2004, 02:01 PM

If he showed me his cards, and I knew that he had AK, I would call in a second. Good job trusting your read, with $21K + antes of dead money in there, you definitely made the right play.

Also you should factor in that there is a decent chance that the initial raiser may have had a weaker ace, maybe A9 or AT, which are hands that a lot of people like to try to steal with. This could make you a bigger favorite.

Sorry about the result, but I think you played it right.

Rick Diesel

gcoutu · #7 10-25-2004, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you absolutely know that he has AK, 100% of the time you should still call. You are a 55/45 fav or so, with a lot of overlay from the pot. When you aren't on the bubble or in the money the idea that you should avoid other big stacks isn't really true. Its the easiest way to continue to get a lot of chips. Just remember your trying to get all of the chips by the end. Easy all here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Risking your entire big stack early in a tournament on coin flips is also the easiest way to be on the rail.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, it wasn't early in the tourney. Only 28 players left.

Second, do you play to win? If so call every single time. If you want to move up in money then just fold and wait. You are almost certain to be ahead every time. I think you have to call and if he hits an over then so be it. I would have called and expected to see AK, AQs, JJ or TT. If he has the AA and KK he did a good job of playing it weird.

Chief911 · #8 10-25-2004, 02:07 PM

Nice call, bad results. Don't be result oriented. If you were sure he wasn't playing AA or KK, this is very easy. You cannot win big tournaments shying away from hands like this. Many people could make the move the big stack made with JJ, TT, and even 99, not to mention AQ.

You are at a point in the tournament that you have to take advantage of hands like this, and acquire a lot of chips.

Good call.

holman3rd · #9 10-25-2004, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you absolutely know that he has AK, 100% of the time you should still call. You are a 55/45 fav or so, with a lot of overlay from the pot. When you aren't on the bubble or in the money the idea that you should avoid other big stacks isn't really true. Its the easiest way to continue to get a lot of chips. Just remember your trying to get all of the chips by the end. Easy all here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Risking your entire big stack early in a tournament on coin flips is also the easiest way to be on the rail.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, it wasn't early in the tourney. Only 28 players left.

Second, do you play to win? If so call every single time. If you want to move up in money then just fold and wait. You are almost certain to be ahead every time. I think you have to call and if he hits an over then so be it. I would have called and expected to see AK, AQs, JJ or TT. If he has the AA and KK he did a good job of playing it weird.

[/ QUOTE ]
I deleted my previous posts. I misread the original post. I thought it was 3 or 4 "levels", not breaks. My bad. Given that is was late in the tourney, I would call here.

Sorry if I stirred up a pot for no reason.

nightlyraver · #10 10-25-2004, 03:10 PM

HOW COULD YOU EVEN CONSIDER FOLDING!!!???

Seriously though, I've been there - it's tough knowing that you are probably putting your tourney on the line in a coin-flip situation. However, that's how you win tournaments. Best example I can think of - Fossilman in the WSOP main event. Still good example - the thousands of other people who win tournaments all the time. Remember, your after one of the top spots, not just to finish "in the money." If you really think about it, accumulating a big lead is really difficult w/o putting yourself in these types of situations, whether it be pre-flop or post-flop. As further justification, run through this hand 100 times and even assume that he would do this play with AA or KK 10% of the time just for $hits and giggles - YOU STILL PROFIT CONSIDERABLY. If there was almost no dead money in the pot (and there is MUCH of it in this case) and you had plenty of chips to continue with, I may throw this away if I were right around the bubble - but that's a big "may"...