Help settle this argument...

[Go Blue]

Ok, so my friend and I just had this argument about playing marginal hands in MTTs. It started by how I was saying that one of the dumbest calls I saw in the WSOP is when Berman called Brunson's all in with A7, when he was at best a 50-50, in all likelihood. But then I was saying in general, that it is stupid to risk almost all your chips on marginal hands, even if you have the better hand (I think it's kind of the same thing that Sklansky says in his book). So then I brought up a hypothetical situation: You are playing the WSOP main event, and already made the money, although a sizeable field is still in play. You are not short stacked, but don't have that many chips either. So you are dealt A7o and someone goes all in ahead of you. If you call and lose, you are just about eliminated, losing almost all of your chips. The catch, is that you are 100% sure that the other person has K8o, either because you are a great reader or you saw the cards flash, but either way, you KNOW that he is holding this hand. So, do you call? (Assume that you are last to act and it will be heads up if you call.) I say, no, because you are only about a 60-40 favorite, and you don't want to be risking almost all your chips on a marginal hand, even though you are the favorite. You can risk SOME chips, but not this many. Even if you double up, it's not as if you are guaranteed to even make the final table but if you lose, then you're pretty much gone. I'd want to risk my chips when I know I have a dominating hand, not on a 60-40. My friend said the opposite, that he'd call, simply because it is the better hand. What would you do in this case?

[cha59]

I'm by no means an expert, but I'd fold if I thought I was as good or better than the most of players left in the tourney. If you feel most of the players left are better than you, then call.

[random]

That guy with A7 did not see that Brunson had already raised in front of him, so when he announced "raise", thinking he was first in, he was forced to reraise Brunson and then get lucky.

Unless the table is playing super tight and the k8 raiser is doing that every other hand or more often, I would call.

[Go Blue]

Ok, I didn't know the thing about what you posted, I guess the call didn't seem that unusual to me because I see that kind of stupidity on TV all the time. Asfor the guy with K8, what difference does it make how tight the table or he has been? You still either win or lose.

[JoeyT]

I actually think cha59 brings up a very valid point here. Calling or folding in this situation depends on how you feel your skill level is compared to the rest of the field. If you feel its not going to be difficult to get into a situation much better than 60-40 in the next few revolutions (which is the amount of time I'm assuming you have before you're officially short stacked), then go ahead and muck. Personally, if I were in the final 100 or so at the WSOP already in the money I would probably go ahead and make this call because I don't know how confident I would be against the rest of the field.

-Joe

[Chaostracize]

Paul Phillip's talk about this in some recent posts.

What makes you a better player than other is that you "know" so-and-so has K8, and you are a 60% favorite. Therefore you MUST make this call.

It would be different here if you had AK and you knew so-and-so has 22. Then it's a fold. You know you are a slight dog.

But when someone knows you will fold a slightly superior hand because you don't want to "gamble" then they have a humongous edge over you. Large tourneys are, in a sense, based on winning coinflips over and over, you will not be a large (70% and above? 80% and above?) favorite to win a hand often enough in tournaments to play solely on them.

Clear call.

[beachbum]

Yeah, if you KNOW he has K8 then you can call. IMO you pass up too much EV here by folding.

Since poker is putting people on ranges of hands you can only guesstimate what he has. Also, on a side note people naturally have a tendency to overevaluate their poker ability. So they are willing to pass up small edges to go for bigger edges down the line. However, +20% here (60/40) is NOT a small edge.

And oh yes, GO BLUE, kick some Boiler arse tomorrow!

[fnurt]

Under the stated conditions the only reasonable play is to call. You have a below-average stack in the final 100 of the WSOP. Do you really think an opportunity better than 60-40 rates to come your way?

[2Luckydude]

I have played about 200 low buy in tourneys on 5 online sites and have tried different strategies including very tight AA,KK QQ but all in with these hands and folding everything else. and have made a small profit $300. at the same time I ahve played by calling all unraised hands to see the flop for the first 3 levels to try and flop big and (lucky). I have only placed first once but have placed on the final table 9 times and placed in the money about 20 times. Since there are so many loose callers and unlike a ring game if they win your out, any suggestions to increase win rate since I am barely making a profit? These small buy ins are driving me crazy but they are all i can afford at this time.

[willie]

i believe mr raymer said something along the lines of a 10% advantage is something not to be passed up

therefore you should gamble with your ace.