Betting and Pott Odds for Hold Em

[JSHamm]

This is just an example but I'm wondering how you would handle this situation

Say you are dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

and your opponent is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

the flop comes down as 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Now you put the opponent on a flush draw so how do you handle betting going into the turn?
He has 3.25:1 odds on making the flush so do you bet higher than the odds trying to scare him off? If so, isn't his call justified by the pot odds? Or do you bet less the the odds given thereby giving him unjustified reason to call?
I'm new to poker, about two months, so I was wondering how this situation should be handled best.
BTW, this is my first post so hello to everyone.

[Macedon]

JSHamm,

Welcome to the web site.

Now your post....

On the flop, a four-to-a-flush has a 35% chance of hitting by the river. That's almost 2:1 odds against (it happening).
[Where did you get 3.25:1?]

So, if it is heads up between you and your opponent, and you suspect that your opponent is considering seeing his hand down to the river, then you should bet AT LEAST the size of the pot. [If the pot has $10 in it, bet $10 or more]

If you do that, you will be offering him less than 2:1 pot odds. If you bet half the pot, you will be offering him 3:1 pot odds, which would be sufficient for him to call (if he intends to take it to the river).

Hope this helps.

[JSHamm]

Thanks for the welcome...yeah, I did my math incorrectly. Thanks for the advice, though.
Just to make sure I don't make the same mistake. the formula would be like flipping a coin...

(100/50%)-1
(2) - 1
1:1

correct?
Any other opinions would be appreciated. Thanks again.

[Reef]

He actually has more than that: 9 spades and 3 aces = 12 outs. He has 3:1 odds of making it on the turn. And then 3:1 again on the river.

I'd say pot sounds about good. If he's a calling station, I just might go all in if my stack wasn't TOO big compared to the pot.

... but then again, I'm a limit player

[Macedon]

12 outs---Not really. Even if he got a runner-runner Aces, that would make a full house for the orginal poster.

He has 9 outs only.

[Reef]

Let's work this out

Villian has 12 outs. Hero has 10 outs for redraw on river.
12/47 Villian is ahead on turn (25.5%). Of these, times Hero will improve on river 10/46 times (21.3%)

21.3% of 25.5% is 5.4% when villian improves and hero rivers. Villian thus has about 25.5%-5.4% or 20.1%

This is the same as 10 outs
correct me if I'm wrong

[boncher]

I only see 9 outs.

[jimymat]

Im dissappointed in my fellow 2+2ers. Every one has missed the fact that one of the villans spades will not help. The King of spades will give him the flush but the hero would then have four of a kind. Only 8 spades are his outs not including some runner runner B.S. for a straight. The villan is around 25% to win the pot, you dont figure outs for a hand that does not need to improve. You will win 75% of the time. You are a 3-1 favorite so if you want him out of the pot right then (assuming a NL game) you better make a big bet since he will not have the correct odds to call.
This also depends on his type of style. If he is a calling station then it reverts back to your style. Push all in he calls and you win 3 out of 4 times or check it to him and if 1 of his 8 outs hit you fold. (check and call to get your hand shown down) Its the difference between you being aggresive or passive. Most players that make a positive cash flow from poker are aggressive tight by the way. If it was me I would push all in, let him have to make the decision to call you on a drawing hand with one of his outs. If he calls then your the favorite and you got all your money in. That my first poster little buddy is the best that anyone can ask of you. Cardplayer.com has a online odds calculator that shows you the exact % on hand vs. hand. You should check it out.Good luck.

[Reef]

nice catch

[CrisBrown]

Hi JSHamm,

In this situation, I'd bet the pot at the flop (gives him 2:1 pot odds on roughly a 2:1 draw), and then push harder at the turn if it blanks. I don't like pushing in at the flop here, because while he may be more likely to fold, he will take your stack about 25% of the time when he calls. Conversely, by waiting to push hard until the turn, you're getting almost the same equity (if not a bit more) at much less risk of ruin.

Cris