"Bet for Value" vs. "You'll Only Get Called When You're Beaten"

[John White]

I keep reading these two phrases. "Bet the river for value." "Don't make a bet that will only get called by cards that beat you." These pieces of advice contradict each other, or depend on subtle differences in situation. How do you tell one situation from the other?

[NLSoldier]

Depends on your opponent. Against some opponents you can value bet with A high, knowing they will call with K high, a counterfiet pocket pair, etc. Against others you have to fear a check raise much more and are putting yourself at risk by betting a hand that will not extract any more bets when ahead but will potentially lose 2 bets when behind. Also you have to consider whetehr the opponent is capable of pushing you off the winner with a CR bluff.

[CrisBrown]

Hi John,

As a general rule, you bet for value when your opponent will call more often than he would bet, and check-call when your opponent will bet more often than he would call. For example:

* You've been at the table for awhile, and you've seen Andy make a lot of river calls, even with marginal hands, but almost no river bets. Against Andy, you would bet a good hand for value, because he is likely to call with even a marginal hand. If you check to Andy, he's likely to check behind you, and you're giving away that river bet.

* Brian, on the other hand, almost never calls at the river, and you haven't seen him make a river call without the best hand. However, he's aggressive and he'll often bet even marginal hands at the river. Against Brian, you'd check and call, because he's likely to bet hands that you can beat. Conversely, if you bet into Brian, he wouldn't call without a winner.

In short, the difference comes down to knowing the player.

Cris

[axioma]

its not uncommon for many low limits players to call a bet on the river with as little as bottom pair.

"You'll Only Get Called When You're Beaten" just does not apply in many games today.

[Nottom]

Also I think it comes up more often in some other games (like stud) than in hold'em.

For example: Player A has open trips, Player B has an unpaired board with a 3 flush.

If Player A hasn't filled up, unless Player B is the worst player ever there is no value in betting here since he will only call if he has you beat.

[dogmeat]

Hold'em example:

You call a preflop raise with 66
Pre-flop raiser bets the flop of 577 you call with two other players
Turn is a 4 aggresser still bets, you call others fold
River is a 2 no flush and aggresser checks - Do you bet your pair, thinking he has AK or do you check, thinking he has a better pair. Well, with any reads on the player, you know the answer. With no reads, you can figure he is 100% going to call with an overpair, but will throw his AK away x%. If there is now $28 in the pot, your bet of $4 will be make his call worth making if he thinks you will bluff more than the 12.5% his call costs - he will probably call in low limit. So now you just check. If you knew he was loose and would call with any ace-high hand, you would obviously bet.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Louie Landale]

Against loose tenacious types when you have a real pair, there is no such thing as "Don't make a bet that will only get called by cards that beat you." Yes. Just because you would never call a bet like that, don't make the mistake of presuming that THEY would never; because they will. That's why they are called "loose tenacious".

The don't make a bet thing mostly comes up against reasonable folks who know you are likewise reasonable, and both of you can put each other on a small number of reasonable hands. If he calls a raise cold and continues to call, don't expect him to call with less than Qs when the board is AKQxx.

I don't know how to say the following without dripping sarcasm, so don't take it personally: You shouldn't have any trouble spotting river calling stations: they will be the ones that show down a lot of losing hands. You should also not have any trouble spotting folks that go to the river a lot but fold the small pairs: they will be the ones getting to the river a lot and then folding. You shouldn't have any trouble spotting the weak-tight folks: they are the ones that fold a lot before and ON the flop, but then almost always show the hand down. You may have some trouble spotting the folks that can and do have some idea what YOU have: but basically they are the ones that are playing tight and bet a lot and win a lot of show-downs.

Bet out everything against the river calling stations. Bet out most of it against the other loose folks. Put on the brakes when the weak-tight folks call ON the flop. Bet out against the thinking folks in situations where it looks like you're bluffing.

- Louie

[spamuell]

If Player A hasn't filled up, unless Player B is the worst player ever there is no value in betting here since he will only call if he has you beat.

Or unless Player B is tricky or weak, and realises that Player A will only bet with a full house, so if Player A bets trips then Player B will fold his flush.

Pretty unlikely, yeah.