NL suckouts galore

[Gata Kamsky]

Played 1-2 NL today and lost about $1200. Got sucked out by 6 outers and 3 outers all night in nearly every damn all in. How rare is this? Losing 7 allins when your at least a 75% each time and sometimes a 85% favorite.

[Lawrence Ng]

Omg, this post is an easy mark for sarcasm...must..resist..

Gata, why don't you post your hands instead? That way, we can all run it through and see what happened, how it was played, and then we can comment from there.

Other than that I would just probably say you have an insufficient sample size and you need to learn to handle the harsh harsh variances of NL poker especially during a brutal run.

Anyways, I will leave the sarcastic remarks to my fellow carpal tunnels...

[kelvin474]

Probability forum?

.8 chance of winning, whats the chance of losing 7 in a row?

.2^7 or 128 x 10^-7 .0000128

Are you the guy who played Karpov in 1996?

[LokiV]

My pocket aces lost to pocket Jacks! Then I shot myself in the face, but I'm too much of a loser to even die from that.

Have you tried shooting yourself yet? You might have more luck than I did, unless you're a loser too that is.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Gata,

First, you're probably not counting the hands were you weren't drawn out on, and that significantly skews your sample. Second, it sounds like you were pushing in early in hands, probably pre-flop or on the flop at the latest, and if you're doing that consistently, in deep money NL play, at a table where there is very little steal equity, you can expect a HUGE variance in your results.

Cris

[Al Schoonmaker]

Cris,
Your point is extremely important. We all remember the times that someone sucks out, but forget:
1. The times that WE suck out.
2. The times our hands hold up.
To keep from becoming sorry for myself, I constantly remind myself of my lucky suckouts. For example, twice I misread a situation so badly that I capped on the turn with one out and caught it. Three times in one night I beat the same player with runner-runner full houses to beat a flopped straight, set, or flush.
Lou Krieger wrote an excellent article some time ago. It was titled "An unremarkable hand" or something like that. He said he raised with the best hand, bet the flop, turn, and river, and won. That's what usually happens. We remember the unlucky hands to reinforce our inflated impression of how well we play. "I'm a good player, but sooooo unlucky."
Regards,
Al

[tripdad]

last night in a live n/l tourney with a tough blind structure, i got dealt basically junk hands for the 1st 3 orbits. finally, i picked up 2 face in the BB(KJoffsuit). the flop was A high with a J and a flush draw. SB bets out, i call, as do 2 others. the turn was a blank. SB bets out, i RAISE to limit the field, which works when the MP folds, CO calls, then SB folds. i caught a K on the river and put the CO, who had the Ace of course, out of the game.

next hand i win, i get black QQ in the CO. i raise 1st in to 2 1/2xBB, and am called by the button and BB. the board is 10 high. checked to me, i bet 3/4 pot. button moves in (i have him covered by a bit), i call. he turns over red AA. i picked up runner runner club to take the pot.

next hand i'm involved in i have KQoffsuit in the SB. 3 callers to me, i merely complete. BB checks. flop is KQJ rainbow. i check, planning to raise. BB bets the minimum, it is folded to me when i push(i had about twice the pot). he calls and turns over a lonely Jack. he gets his Jack on the turn to put me out of the tourney. i stewed about that hand all stinking night, even though i had sucked out twice to make it to where i was. i'm over it now, but barely.

cheers!

[Lama]

Are u Gata Kamsky with chess rating around 2700 ?

[LokiV]

[ QUOTE ]
last night in a live n/l tourney ... blah blah blah blah blah

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you people tell your long boring stories like anyone cares?

I don't even bother to read that crap. Anytime I'm talking about a 'bad beat' it's nothing but the most scathing sarcasm I can muster. I groan about it, but personally. Why can't all of you do so as well?

Note: I think your story was about putting bad beats on others, but I just skimmed it. As both kinds are equally boring and have nothing relevant to say.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Loki,

I think you missed the point of tripdad's post. He hits two incredible draws, then gets drawn out on, and goes home stewing about how he got drawn out on. The point, I think, was that we remember when we get drawn out on, but ignore the times we draw out on someone else or our hand holds up.

So we end up with the kind of story the OP writes, where he got drawn out on 7 times and "what are the odds of that?" Well, I played yesterday for about 200 hands, and I'm sure I was outdrawn at least 7 times. I also had some best hands hold up, and one outdraw of my own. That's pretty much normal for a NL session. *shrugs*

The difference between winning and losing, or between losing just a little and losing catastrophically, is how many chips you have in the pot when you get outdrawn vs. how many you have in the pot when your hand holds up or you hit your draw. The earlier you push your chips in the middle, at a table where you're going to get callers, the higher your variance is going to be.

Cris