Youth Vote re: 1972

[BonJoviJones]

I've seen people talking about how the youth vote may be a hidden source of strength for Kerry as they may not show up on polls (as they are not 'likely voters')

Does anybody think this view, while somewhat logical, is born out in history, specifically with regards to the 1972 election?

As a history recap, 1972 was the first election where 18+'s could vote.

Common sense said this would help McGovern. In the end though, Nixon only lost something like a handful of states.

Do you think the "youth vote" will have any difference in this election, given the history?

Is there anything special about this election that will galvanize the youth in a way that 1972, Nixon, The Draft, Vietnam, Drugs, etc could not?

[PhatTBoll]

I think you make a good point.
Most people would be surprised by how much support there is for Bush among young people. After all, seniors are overwhelmingly supportive of Kerry. Roughly half the country will be voting for Bush. All that support has to come from somewhere.

[Dynasty]

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As a history recap, 1972 was the first election where 18+'s could vote. Common sense said this would help McGovern. In the end though, Nixon only lost something like a handful of states.


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The results of the 1972 election were:

Richard Nixon (R): 48,740,223 (60.3%)
George McGovern (D) 28,901,598 (37.3%)

Richard Nixon won 49 states in the Electoral College. Only Massachusetts and the District of Columia voted for McGovern. The final vote was 520-17-1. For reasons I don't know, Libertarian candidate Joseph Hospers got one vote from Virginia.

Some of the older posters may remember seeing post-Watergate bumper stickers which said something like "Don't blame me. I'm from Massachusetts."

http://presidentelect.org/e1972.html

[BonJoviJones]

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For reasons I don't know, Libertarian candidate Joseph Hospers got one vote from Virginia.

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Any more info on this? Google results are slim. I was unaware any 'current' third party had ever gotten an EC vote.

[arabie]

absolutely. The 92' election is another good example. Young adults got intersted in politics with a fight against music censorship, and anti-war. I think Bush Sr. and the current president also have similar approval rating records when it comes to foreign policy and the economy. Clinton was a hip-kinda-guy who definitely brought out the young vote to help him steal the election. Similarily, Kerry is going to feed off the entire anti-bush culture from the far left right up to a good share of the conservatives who simply don't support bush. Politics is much more mainstream this year with a lot of hot topics appealing to those who generally ignore election. I think a large percent of the political newcomers will be more liberal, and the conservative vote will stay fairly steady.

[Dynasty]

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For reasons I don't know, Libertarian candidate Joseph Hospers got one vote from Virginia.

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Any more info on this? Google results are slim. I was unaware any 'current' third party had ever gotten an EC vote.

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I'm sure it was just some elector deciding to give the Libertarian candidate a token vote to raise awareness of some issues. I just don't know the specifics

There are other examples. The best, most recent one may be in 1968. In that election, George Wallace ran for the American Independent Party and won Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississsippi, Alabama, and Georgia for 45 Electoral College votes. He also got one additional vote from North Carolina

In 2000, one DC vote which was supposed to go to Al Gore wasn't cast at all in protest of DC not having any congressional representation.

In 1988, one of Michael Dukakis' electors voted for Lloyd Bentsen.

In 1976, Ronald Reagan got one Washington Electoral College vote despite only getting a little more than 1,000 write-in votes in the popular vote.

[andyfox]

1972 was the first election I was eligible to vote and, no surprise, I voted for McGovern. There was indeed a great silent majority that would not vote for the anti-war candidate. McGovern also messed up by taking Senator Eagleton as his VP; but then it came out he had had some mental problems, so he was booted off the ticket and replaced with Sargent Shriver. All the polls showed all along that McGovern would get trounced. He was really the first Democratic candidate who became the candidate through the primary process: he started very low in the polls, perhaps as little as 1%, with the 1968 vice presidential candidate, Senator Muskie of Maine, as the favorite. Muskie self-destructed (I think by crying at one press conference, if memory serves). Prior to 1972, the candidate was still determined by "back-room" politics.

"Common knowledge" is that Robert Kennedy would have won the 1968 Democratic nomination had he not been killed, since he won the California primary. But Hubert Humphrey already had the nomination wrapped up and did not even compete in the California primary.

[John Cole]

Andy,

If you recall, Muskie's self-destruction came with a bit of a boost from "outside sources."

BTW, I voted for the first time in 1972 (I had just turned 18 on October 20), and it still goes down as one of the great moments in my life--even if I did vote for the loser.

[andyfox]

It was a great feeling getting into that voting booth, wasn't it?

I don't remember the Muskie incident. Were there some dirty tricks involved?

I do remember that, in 1968, the favorite for the Republicans was George Romney. Then he said he was "brainwashed" on Vietnam and he faded from contention.