Overplaying TPTK

[Cry Me A River]

This one's been coming up a lot lately, and any way I've tried to play it I feel like I'm coming away with a few less toes and the smell of gunpowder in the air (I've probably been playing it just as horribly all along, it's just mostly been coming out in my favour before).

I'm playing low buy-in MTTs so the quality of player varies from terrible to decent with emaphasis on terrible.

So, I see the flop with several limpers and I flop TPTK (or even TPGK) with a flush draw available on the board.

So when it gets to me, I bet anywhere from 1/2 pot to pot depending on pot size relative to my stack and depending on the other stack sizes and the number of players in the pot (ie: bigger bet with more players in so flush draws don't wind up with odds to call if someone calls before them)

Usually that'll give me the pot right there and I'm happy with that, however, occaisionally there's a caller.

Which is where I get into trouble. Assuming no good reads, for whatever reason (if I have reads it becomes an awful lot easier) what do I do?

The call means one of several things:

A) He has nothing, he's just terrible
B) He's chasing the flush
C) He's in love with his middle/low pair
D) He's trapping/slowplaying a pocket overpair, 2 pair or set
E) He's underplaying a pocket overpair, 2 pair or set

(By E I mean that if I slow down he'll be happy to check it all the way through versus D who'll likely bet if I show weakness)

If I'm first to act, I feel like if I bet any less % of the pot than I did on the flop that I'm showing weakness which opens me up to him coming over the top and forcing me to lay it down, regardless of what he actually holds. Even worse if I check it and he bets out with anything - Which if it was me, is a bet I'd make, with anything, any time I'm against someone I think can lay down a hand (I know we're back to reads but this is almost a set play for me so I expect it coming the other way).

If I do make a bet, and he calls I'm going to be in the same spot on the river. The whole thing can easily turn into me putting a big chunk if not my whole stack in on TPGK. Which is great when the guy's got middle pair but really sucks when he shows a flopped set.

Not to mention by giving him the river card for free, I'm just begging to be rivered.

So, any advice?

Do I just assume that against mostly-bad players a "move" here is almost always going to be for real? In my experience, if he comes over the top against my TPGK bet he has me beat 95% of the time so I lay it down. But what about when I show strength on the flop, but slow down on later streets and then he shows strength. Do I just assume it's for real? Or am I leaving myself open unnessasarily by showing weakness in the first place?

What about if I make a small bet (min bet) on the turn/river. Yeh, I hate min bets too. But going over the top is such a strong move, even against a tiny bet, that maybe it prevents him making that auto-bet when I check and I get to see showdown cheaply. Unless he really does have a big hand, then at some point he's probably going to come over the top and I can be pretty sure it's for real?

[AceKQJT]

Tough to play 1 pair out of position, huh?

I don't think there is any single answer that will be correct often enough to mention without a bunch of qualifiers.

Just remember you have a pair...not 2 pair, or a set. How PROBABLE is it that he has 2 pair? A set? A Draw? ...Go from there.

--Casey