ring game question.

[Blackstar]

Hey I'm new to the forum so take it eaasy on me folks. I'll try not to sound too dumb.
Me and a buddy were getting into an arguement because, to be honest, I think we both know less then we think we do. He gave me a senario and asked what I would do. here it is:

you are at NL 1-2 blinds full table on the button with Ah Ac. 2 players in middle position limp in. everyone else folds to you. You make it 16 to go. SB folds, BB calls, both middles call. 65 dollar pot pre flop everyone in teh pot has about $250 left. The flop comes 2d 3d 4s. BB bets 16, first middle raises to 32, second middle moves all in for 32 plus his remaining 218 putting you all in. I I think the correct play is for me to fold but I don't really know why I should mathematically. Can anyone help me with the process that should use to figure this out and any other instance like it? Thanks

[laja]

I am not sure you should have raised so much preflop that is 8x big blind, maybe do more like 4-6x, but if you know they are calling stations and would call that then it was a good play. lol 4 players called!

A read on the type of players would help a lot here, what are you scared of? trip is the only legitamit fear fear. You could definately fold here and feel just fine because the players seem so bad that you don't wanna bust before playing with them some more, but I would be weary of this guys all in.

[phixxx]

Not everything has to be mathematically done, if you happen to have a good read on the opponents, go over the hands they've played and make a read.

[dogmeat]

I make the assumption that your friend would call the bet. This makes you both wrong, because you made a decision on a potential $600 minimum pot without any information to make the decision with.

What is not expressed, and needs to be known to answer this correctly is how do these other players play. Would the fellow that went all-in originally call a bet preflop with 23,24,34 or baby pair of 2's, 3's or 4's? Would he call with A-5 or 56?

In many games on the internet, players will call with these hands. If you know this player at all and he will call with this type of hand, you fold.

If this is a tight game, where the players have more respect for an early raise, and would not call with these hands, then this player probably has an overpair - and you call.

If you know nothing about the player - you go with your instincts. If you are a reasonable player, you make a reasonable decision here. If you have no idea, you probably make the wrong one.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Blackstar]

I'm talking strickly mathmatical here. I know what hands will beat me at the moment (set-o-2s,3s,4s; a5,56), and I know what hand will dominate me at the end (xdxd doesn't matter which one since I have none). I want to know:

a: if some one has 22,33,44, I know I'll need a miracle runner runner or an Ace or 5. Should I call in this situation. My gut says, assuming I am losing, fold since with only 6 outs(7:1) putting in 250 to win a 615 pot(2.4:1) doesn't seem worth it. Am I doing this right?

b. If that guy has XdXd, he's got 9 cards(4:1) that will beat me. I have the guy beat at this point but is it a smart call with just a pair? How is the math applied this way.

[Dov]

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How is the math applied this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

It isn't. You need to know who you are playing with. You are either way ahead, or way behind. The only way you will know which one is by getting a read. If they will call that raise with 23, the same as KK, then you have nothing to go on, and you have to call the bet, simply because there are only a handful of hands that beat you. Of course if you know this, it is not a math question anyway.

[Blackstar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How is the math applied this way.

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It isn't. You need to know who you are playing with. You are either way ahead, or way behind. The only way you will know which one is by getting a read. If they will call that raise with 23, the same as KK, then you have nothing to go on, and you have to call the bet, simply because there are only a handful of hands that beat you. Of course if you know this, it is not a math question anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well do you call if the guy have something like kd3d positivly. He has 11 outs. I think that is a coin flip heads up. If I call and lose, did I make the right decision?

[Louie Landale]

Note that if you have the best hand right now you should call, if you don't have the best hand right now you should fold. So you need to know your relative chances of having the best hand. Generally and rightfully folks don't go all in like that unless they can beat AA. Add to that the fact that the other two folks bet and raised, and the chances you have the best hand right now is higher than the % of the vote Nader will get.

This would be a tough call even against a Maniac, since its likely the 32 better has you beat as well.

AA can only win a great-big pot when [1] you make trips or the flush [2] the opponent is a suicidal maniac [3] you see the opponent's cards as he bluffs, or [4] you outdraw someone. The situation you describe looks a lot like [4] to me.

Great-big-NL-pots generally and rightfully feature real good hands. Deal with it. And I don't mean that sarcastically. I mean you need to set your sights on medium pots or better yet no-show-down pots when you've got the big pair.

- Louie

[Lawrence Ng]

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Hey I'm new to the forum so take it eaasy on me folks.

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The folks here on Twoplustwo are the friendliest I've ever seen. All the Carpal Tunnels are so nice, so sincere. Just ask El Diablo.

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I'll try not to sound too dumb.

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Too late.. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop comes 2d 3d 4s. BB bets 16, first middle raises to 32, second middle moves all in for 32 plus his remaining 218 putting you all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless they are playing with their cards open and you can see that no one has a made straight, or straight or whatever crazy two pair they flopped, yes a fold is right.

[garyc8]

If he has a 4 flush and a pair, the pair must be 4s since 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] are on flop. Suppose he has K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. That leaves him 14 outs (3Ks, 24s, & 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s). If he catches a 4, you can still catch an A to win. If he gets a K for 2pair, you can win with an A or a 2, or a 3. It's very close to even money. The pre-flop money should be enough to give a +Ev to a call (in this specific scenario).