MLB playoff math

[eyekast]

any suggestions would be helpfull

my numbers

yankees will win 45%
boston will win 55%

line

yankees +150
boston -165

yankees EV

150(.45) - 100(.55) = $12.50 per $100 risked

boston EV

100(.55) - 165(.45) = -$19.25 per $165 risked

it looks to me the only play with a positive EV is yankees.any ideas on this??

[RiskyMr]

I agree with your analysis. Another way to think about it is with a moneyline of +150 the implied winning percentage is 40%, and a moneyline of -165 implies a 62% winning percentage. So if you believe the Yankees have a 45% chance of winning then you should be +EV.