#1
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What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
First post. I play the $100 NL game at the LA casinos a lot, mostly Hollywood Park. The blinds are 2/3, so most players are pretty short-stacked, but some times guys will work their way up to seven or eight hundred. In any case, I feel that a leak in my game is playing sets when the board also brings two suited cards. I tend to play these hands too fast, or at least I think I do. Take this recent hand.
I hold 77 in middle position, folded to me, I limp, raise to $15 from a very loose player directly to my left, the button calls and I call. Flop comes 9 7 4, two spades (neither of my sevens is a spade). I check, the pre-flop raiser bets out $15, and the button folds. With $60 in the pot, I raise $40 to $55. So what's the story with this raise? Too much? I want to make people pay for their flush draws, but with only one player in the pot it seems that I might want to exploit my well-hidden hand a bit more. For what it's worth, the player called my raise but quickly folded to a medium-sized bet on the turn. Is it usually a good idea to drastically slow-play a set with a flush or straight draw on the flop, or is it better to just play it fast and hope to end the hand? How many people must be involved in the hand to make fast play the correct move? I feel like I'm not maximizing my return on these rather rare opportunities, so any input is appreciated. |
#2
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
What are the approximate stacks of you and your opponent?
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#3
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
If you have a 100 stack, and he has you covered or your even, and the pot is 60 at this point, with him having bet out 15, is pushing your 80 or so dolars into that 60 pot a bad idea?
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#4
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
you played it okay. I NEVER slowplay a set on a draw board. EVER. If its ragged ., I'll pop the raise on the turn, with that short of a stack you need some leverage so raise the flop, I probably make it like 50-60 straight on the flop. If he folds, no problem. The rest is going in on the turn.
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#5
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
I really like your raise here, especially against a loose player. If you ran into an over pair, then your probably gonna get paid off big time. If he calls here, then he could be on a draw, or have hit a pair with a hand like A7 or A9. Take a look at that turn card, if it really scares you, and you get a bad feeling from the guys turn move - dump it, and move on. However, I'd say your odds are good enough to get all your money in the pot on the turn anyway. From the sounds of it - I think this guy was just trying to steal the pot with a wimpy 15 dollar bet.
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#6
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
I dont like checking a flopped hand with the board 2-suited. If they are loose you dont want them calling so make them kae difficult decions. I find it a difficult line maximizing $$ with very loose players.
JAA |
#7
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
I’m not a huge fan of calling with 77 out of position, unless you both had $350 or more and he plays badly postflop, but its not to bad either. Loose preflop raisers tend to bet out at most flops, so I thinking checking is fine if you’re pretty confident he’ll bet at this. It depends mostly on how you think he’d play a flush or straight draw here. If he’d semi-bluff them, then checking is good. If he’d go for a free card then raising is better. |
#8
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
In order to play your small pairs preflop, you have to expect that the amount you are going to win if you hit your set will be, on average, 10-15 times the amount you put in preflop. Note that you didn't even almost get there, this time. (You won $85.) This is the reasoning behind qerqery's comment, that you and your opponent should be at least $350 deep in order to call the raise. If you often win $85 but sometimes break him, then you can get your average up to the required $150.
That said, I think that betting out would have been better in this case. Betting out is a lot less scary than a check-raise, and you will typically be raised by hands like overpair or top pair. Often you can bet out and THEN check-raise the turn, which will get you all in when you have medium stacks (100-150 BBs). Also, if you bet out and are just called, you are more likely to keep the player to your right calling along with a sub-standard hand. He will be hesitant to call the opposing player's bet if he knows you are still to act, and potentially check-raise, behind him. Note that this is exactly the opposite from what you see in limit poker in this situation. In limit poker, you check-raise in this situation, specifically to extract the double bet from the player in the middle. (Also, in limit poker, you are much more likely to be raised on the flop by the original raiser.) What you are giving up if you bet out is the bluff that he might make if the flop missed him completely. If you bet out, he probably will just fold it. However, that is only small money, and you are going for the big cash. I hope this helps. Now I'm going to whine a bit, so I recommend you stop reading here. Last might I had a similar situation (on PP but we both had about 100 BBs), where I limped and then called a small raise from my left with 77. Flop was K73 rainbow. I bet out, was raised, I reraised, and he called. Turn was a J, I bet all in and he called. River was another J, and his KJ took the pot. Yes, he needed runner-runner and he got it. Sigh. |
#9
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
[ QUOTE ]
In order to play your small pairs preflop, you have to expect that the amount you are going to win if you hit your set will be, on average, 10-15 times the amount you put in preflop. Note that you didn't even almost get there, this time. (You won $85.) This is the reasoning behind qerqery's comment, that you and your opponent should be at least $350 deep in order to call the raise. If you often win $85 but sometimes break him, then you can get your average up to the required $150. [/ QUOTE ] Where did you get 10 - 15? Shouldn't this be more along the lines of > 8.25x? |
#10
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Re: What\'s the most profitable way to play a flopped set?
What are the odds of flopping the set? I think its like 11.5 to 1. Hence, you need the 10 to 15 times the preflop call to make it long term good.
I'm not that good of a player though, so please tell me if im wrong here. |
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