Tough Spot vs. The Chip Monster

[Cleveland Guy]

$10+1 Multi, top 20 place, 220 entered, down to 60 left.

I am in 12th place with about 7,500 chips. The Chip leader with 20K, and 2nd place with 14K are at my table. Blinds are 150/300.

I am dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

1 Fold, UTG+1 (chip leader) calls, 3 Folds, I raise to 1,000. Folded to CO (2nd in chips) who calls. Blinds fold and chip leader calls.

So it's me against the 2 chips leaders. From what I have seen while we have been at the same table, they are aggressive, but not out of line. The chip leader had a nice triple up with a flopped flush against 2 sets.

Anyways- I'm in this hand against the 2 chip leaders.

Flop comes 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Giving me the inside wheel draw, nut flush draw, and 2 overcards.

Chip leader opens for 2,500 (pot was about 3,500).

What's my action?

[Cleveland Guy]

Please also reply with a reason for your answer if you wish.

This one really had me torn.

[RobGW]

I would push. You have as many as 15-18 outs which would make you at least even money, maybe a favorite. I cant imagine folding this, and calling leaves you with 4000 and maybe having to call again on the turn. Its a tough spot to be in, drawing for your tournament life, but if you win this pot you are the chip leader.

[Rocaix]

Calling is the worst option here, you essentially pot-commit yourself and have little fold equity on turn.

I would put UTG+1 on a medium pocket pair, possibly overcards, seems like he wanted to see a cheap flop and he comes out firing figuring both you and CO whiffed at the flop.

I think the best option is to push here you're still far from the money, and given that kind of flop I think all your outs are live.
If you triple through here, your chip leader and have a clear road to the final table. If they fold, you pick up a decent-sized pot.

Folding isn't horrible since you still have enough chips to make a run later, although I think this opportunity to double/triple up is too good.

[Sam T.]

Push.

It is possible that the chip leader has a pocket pair, but it seems equally reasonable to think that he whiffed, and is trying to beat the rest of y'all to the pot.

You can't call, for the reasons mentioned by others: You'll have decimated your stack, and you have more outs than God. Even if you prompt a fold, you've just added significantly to your stack at a crucial point in the tournament.

Folding is an option, and might have been the right choice if the leader had pushed in front of you. But here you've got enough folding equity to push yourself.

How'd it go?

[br549007]

fold.. you took your shot and missed the flop...they can afford to play a draw you cannot

[fnord_too]

I push because I think it is very much +EV (both in terms of TC and cashing). The all in should clear out the CO, and may fold utg. Worst case is you are up against a set, and are about a 2-1 dog. If you are up against an overpair like TT, you are better than a 60/40 favorite here. Your hand is too strong to lay down, and calling puts you in a bad spot if you miss the turn and are bet into. Push and make the others decide if they want to risk a big chuck of their stacks to continue, you will never be in too bad of shape if you get called.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.. you took your shot and missed the flop...they can afford to play a draw you cannot

[/ QUOTE ]

His draw here is a favorite against most made hands, and is not in bad shape against top set (and in even better shape against the nut straight). In fact, the only hands he is losing too right here are not very likely with the pre flop action.

I would not say that he missed the flop: nut flush draw + gutshot + two overcards (which would give him TPTK if he hits) is hitting the flop pretty hard in my book. I certainly don't think calling is an option, but I think he is giving up far too much by folding here.

[gergery]

I flat call this.

If you push, chip leader need to call 5k to win 13.5k so I don’t think you have a lot of folding equity. But if you think he’ll respect your push then I’d do that. But since if you hit your flush/straight you are likely to win the pot, allowing 2nd chip leader in doesn’t hurt you that much, and may be more EV+. So the more likely a flat call will be to encourage 2nd chip lead to come in, the more likely i am to call.

And if you flat call, 2nd lead folds, and chip lead pushes the turn, you will risk 5k to win 8.5k having up to 20 outs so even calling there is not too terrible a fallback scenario.

--Greg

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.. you took your shot and missed the flop...they can afford to play a draw you cannot

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He's ahead of most conceivable draws they may have, except 65 where the 6 is a club, or 66 where one is a club (this isn't so much a draw, per se, but even here it's a coinflip). If he pushes, he will likely have the best of it, unless he's unlucky enough to be up against a set, a made straight, or pocket aces. And even then he isn't in ridiculously bad shape. At worst, he'll be about a 2:1 dog (3:1 if he's up against exactly 7c 6c).

To me, the betting indicates a smallish overpair or perhaps high cards, maybe even two high clubs, both of which would possibly call his reraise. I mean, he's a 3:2 favorite against QQ here. That's the kind of edge you can't pass up.

And even if they don't fold, he still wins a sizeable pot. Thus, pushing seems right here to me, unless he's got such a great read that he can put his opponent on a set, a straight, or aces.