Hit my flush. Fold?

[bingledork]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 6 handed)

BisonBison hand converter isn't working so, I'll do it manually. Villian seems decent TAG, as best I can tell after only 10-15 hands with him. So who knows.

Hero on button with $27.25
Villian in BB with $41.25

Hero gets 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on button.

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25 and Villian (BB) checks.

Flop ($2) Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Villian bets $0.75, MP folds, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, Villian calls $2.25

I don't normally semi-bluff raise, but this seemed like a good opportunity.

Turn ($8) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian checks. Hero bets $4. Villian raises to $15.
Hero...? push or fold?

It's $11 to me, I've got $19 behind, and the pot is $27.

I think if I folded to every check-raise, it'd be +EV at PP $25. But I hit the card I was hoping for. Can I lay it down?

[Tilt]

Stand up and slide those chips across the table. All you can eat. No question.

I think he hit a straight (9T maybe AT), thinks you have a Q (maybe QT) and is moving strong to protect his hand. Your raise on the flop and the conservative amount you bet on the turn leads him to believe you have paired and nothing more.

Yes, you could lose to a higher flush. But that is so unlikely. Just think to yourself, in relative terms, just how often do you see two flushes against a 3 suited board squaring off? Its not very often...the basic probability is just 11%. Plus, there are flushes you can beat here.

And you cannot just call. If he holds one high heart, you gotta make him pay for the river card.

[amoeba]

I think this is easy push especially because your semibluff raise on the flop disguises your hand.