AA turn decision

bingledork · #1 09-30-2004, 11:26 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed)

The villian in this hand seemed like a decent player, by which I mean he wasn't calling a lot preflop and wasn't making outrageous bets. When I joined the table he was the big stack, and he mostly sat on it. I'd only played about 30 or so hands with him at this time, so I didn't have a good read.

Button ($19.3)
SB ($21.6)
BB ($24.3)
UTG ($55.9)
Hero ($57.8)
CO ($0.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, Button calls $2, SB (poster) calls $1.75, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50.

I was not excited about having a 5-way pot here.

Flop: ($8.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $4, Hero raises to $15, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls $11.

Turn: ($38.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG goes all-in ($40)
Hero ...?

ricdaman · #2 09-30-2004, 11:57 PM

I don't think the turn helped him. You raised pre-flop, and he called your raise out of position. That tells me he has a strong hand, especially since you said he mostly sat on his stack. I'm putting him on a large PP. The only hand I believe he could have that would beat you would be TT, but I doubt he would be betting so much if he has the boat, because that would not be the best way to win the most amount of money.

I think he's putting you on AT or AK or the like. I think he thinks he has you beat, but you really have him beat.

From his flop bet, I might think he has a set, but if he did, then he would have made a boat on the turn, and I just don't think he would have gone all in with a boat.

I'm not suggesting this is the correct play, but I would call. I'm putting him on a high PP. How did it turn out?

AncientPC · #3 10-01-2004, 06:18 AM

I pull the same moves with a set / boat because people keep thinking that I can't have the set / boat because I'm playing too aggressively with it instead of slowplaying.

I'm pretty sure UTG has a boat, but I usually call preflop raises with small pocket pairs hoping to stack someone with a set.

ricdaman · #4 10-01-2004, 09:35 AM

You make a good point. My brother, who is VERY sucessful (being a pro), says he makes the marjority of his money by catching sets and allowing overpairs to go all-in. He could have a boat, he could have an overpair, he could be bluffing... no matter what he has, it might be better to get out and wait for better EV. I'm still curious as to what happened.

Wayfare · #5 10-01-2004, 09:51 AM

Considering how you guys are relatively deep for party and given the villan's play thus far in the hand, I don't think you can call this.

He is stop-and-going for all his money on a relatively deep stack, calling your flop raise and then pushing on the turn. This indicates that he knows what you probably have in the best case scenerio (overpair) and isn't afraid of it (he has a set). If you think this guy is loosy goosy for all his money (which you indicate he is not) go ahead and call, but against reasonable players expect to be beat like 75% of the time.

You are getting 2-1 so it's close if you think the % is 75%.

bingledork · #6 10-01-2004, 11:59 AM

First, a correction. I had only played 12 hands with Villian by this time. In those hands he never once bet or raised. Just check/call/fold. So I labelled him passive.

I was really confounded by Villian's all-in bet here. If he had a set and turned a full house, why not let me bet it? He's got to know I was going to pot it if he checked, and can't fear a free card for the flush draw. If he had AT or the like, why so aggressive? Did he put me on a flush draw with overcards? Anyway, I pondered for my full 20 seconds and made a Hellmuthian Laydown. I couldn't place him on a hand other than 2x, but figured maybe he was just overplaying a boat.

(Un)fortunately, another player was all-in on the flop, so I got to see his cards: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for top-pair-no-kicker and I was steamed.

Jord4n · #7 10-01-2004, 02:37 PM

I think that $40 on the turn was him pleading with you to go away...of course, I wasn't playing with the man..but...

- Jordan

AncientPC · #8 10-01-2004, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
First, a correction. I had only played 12 hands with Villian by this time. In those hands he never once bet or raised. Just check/call/fold. So I labelled him passive.

I was really confounded by Villian's all-in bet here. If he had a set and turned a full house, why not let me bet it? He's got to know I was going to pot it if he checked, and can't fear a free card for the flush draw. If he had AT or the like, why so aggressive? Did he put me on a flush draw with overcards? Anyway, I pondered for my full 20 seconds and made a Hellmuthian Laydown. I couldn't place him on a hand other than 2x, but figured maybe he was just overplaying a boat.

(Un)fortunately, another player was all-in on the flop, so I got to see his cards: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for top-pair-no-kicker and I was steamed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter what his cards were. You made the right fold. When a passive player calls your 2x pot check raise and then goes bonkers you want to play really tight.

Maybe you need to get better reads on people. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

bingledork · #9 10-01-2004, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe you need to get better reads on people. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly! His actions didn't match my read, and I couldn't place him on a hand. My general rule when I get discombobulated like that is to fold.