Kerry Vs Bush Ohio Electoral Vote

[twistedbeats]

wsex has kerry at +230. a gallop poll taken sept 26 has kerry at 49% to bush's 46% of registered voters. of those voters gallop thinks are likely to vote, they have bush at 49% to 47%.

this seems like a good bet. the numbers are too close. what do you guys think?

[bogey]

this is about what you can buy a contract for Kerry to win Ohio at tradesports.com is right now, at tradesports you trade contracts on different events to other people, so the price is constantly changing and the price is set by the market, i dont know much about how accurate those polls are, but since the market price is about the same, i would say its probably not too great of a bet barring any additional info not available to everyone else

[shemp]

I'm shorting kerry in ohio. My "guess" RNC outspends DNC campaign 2:1 in OH.

[Michael Davis]

I think betting on who will win Ohio is the same as betting on who will win the election.

I am not necessarily saying that Ohio will swing the election.

-Michael

[$DEADSEXE$]

no Republican has ever won the election without winning Ohio.

Bush will either win easily in the EC-which is the most likly outcome.
or
Kerry will win by 2 or 3 states in the EC--if all those new registered voters are voting for him instead of Bush(which is usually the reason new people register to vote in an incumbent race).

[TripleH68]

I live in Ohio. The sense from television advertising is that Bush has a stronger television presence than Kerry. Also I would say not to be fooled by the voter registration push. Many of these people will not vote on election day. Sentiment in my workplace is Bush will carry Ohio again. FWIW.

[uaw420rook]

It is to close to call. There are new registrations and most of those will be for Kerry. I know quite of few independents that voted for Bush, that are going with Kerry this time. One point that is going through my own community is before Bush took office our local school budget recieved 7.2 percent of their budget from the federal government. Now they receive 2 percent. More and more levies being proposed to tax land owners. Tafts poor performance has left many independents looking at Democrats. This is from the eastern suburbs of Cleveland. Also the comercial that Bush is running with the annoying music will not help him at all. It a terrible commercial. It should be used only as an example of what not to do, when making an advertisement.

[largeeyes]

Bush and the Swift's are definitely dominating down here in the southwest portion of the state. I agree the state is too close to call......I am interested in seeing how well tradesports predicts the outcome.