Finally some good poll news for Kerry

[anatta]

Kerry leads in the latest CNN/Gallop poll in OHIO. 50-46 among registered voters. Among likely voters Bush holds a 1 point lead. I think the five point difference between RV/LV might supports some news stories I have read about Democratic registration out pacing Republicans in Ohio and Florida. I have read that compared to 2000, Democrats are WAY up in new registration. Whether these new folks come out to vote remains to be seen.

No, I can't deny that the lastest polls have been disheartening. Even Pew had Bush up 8 after being tied last time. But this might at least give Kerry some encouragement heading into the debate.

[Dynasty]

For every bit of good news for one candidate, there is often a bit of bad news to go with it.

Zogby poll says gender gap has evaporated

[ QUOTE ]

The gender gap so evident in recent elections has evaporated, and women split evenly on whether to support the Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards ticket, according to a new Russell Sage College/Zogby International poll of 1,001 women who are likely voters. The poll was conducted September 20 to 23, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

“This is a startling development,” said John Zogby, CEO of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. “In the past three presidential elections, beginning with Bill Clinton in 1992, there’s been a real gap, with women going more heavily to the Democratic candidate. We aren’t seeing that in this election—Kerry only leads Bush by one percentage point, 47% to 46%.” Zogby also noted that recent Zogby Interactive polls have shown men splitting nearly as evenly—a change from the 2000 election, when they favored Republican George W. Bush over Democrat Al Gore.

The survey also finds that, absent a gender gap, a Marriage Gap emerges among women voters—single women are backing Kerry/Edwards by a 2-to-1 margin (66% to 34%) while married women favor Bush/Cheney by 11 points (52% to 41%). Married women whose husbands manage the bulk of financial decisions in their household are for Bush/Cheney over Kerry/Edwards (73% to 23%). These margins hold in other questions in the poll.

Battleground: Suburbia

The Russell Sage/Zogby poll found Mr. Kerry leading Mr. Bush by 63% to 31% in urban areas, while Mr. Bush leads Mr. Kerry by 55% to 38% in rural areas. But the battleground appears to be suburbs, where Mr. Bush edges out Mr. Kerry 49% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.

“Traditionally, whoever wins the suburban vote wins the election,” pollster John Zogby said. “That Bush leads in the suburbs among women isn’t good news for the Kerry campaign. Kerry has to perform much better among this demographic.”

Abortion—51% of All Women Polled are Pro-Choice; Single Women at 60%

Fifty-one percent of women identify themselves as pro-choice versus 42% who say they are pro-life. Married women nearly split on the question, with 49% saying they are pro-choice versus 45% who call themselves pro-life—just outside the poll’s margin of error. For single women, however, the pro-choice position wins by a 60% to 34% margin.

Women are more likely to take firm stands on abortion than the nuanced positions often favored by politicians. A quarter of women (24%) say they are pro-choice and abortion should be legal in all cases, while a similar quarter (25%) say they are pro-life and favor outlawing abortion in all cases except rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother. Much less, 16%, say they are personally pro-life, but favor preserving other women’s right to choose—a position often held by politicians.

Choice and the Supreme Court

A plurality of women do not seem eager to see abortion rights restricted. When faced with the prospect of at least two U.S. Supreme Court justices being named by the next president, half (49%) of women say they are less likely to support Mr. Bush’s reelection if he is able to appoint pro-life justices who would move to restrict abortion, while a third (33%) say they are more likely to favor his reelection. This is most pronounced in the African-American community, where three-quarters (77%) say this makes them less likely to back Mr. Bush for reelection. Three-in-five (61%) of the youngest voting-age women (18-29 year-olds) are less likely to support Mr. Bush’s reelection for this reason.

“What’s really surprising here is the lack of middle ground on abortion,” John Zogby said. “Women opted for the more strident positions on either side and did not seem to be willing to meet in the middle, suggesting this is a no-win issue for any candidate vying for the women’s vote.”

Security Concerns Trump Economy

Women also are more security-conscious in the post-9/11 world. By a margin of 54% to 39%, women say people need to be willing to give up some rights to increase their overall security. But as with the presidential race, the marriage gap is fully on display here. Married women say people need to be willing to give up their rights by a margin of 57% to 34%, while single women are opposed to this premise by a 53% to 46% margin.

Women place greater emphasis on security from terrorism than they do on economic security. While women consider both issues very important as they go into the voting booth, women say they consider security from terrorism more important than the security of a paycheck by 54% to 37%. This is one of the few questions in the survey that did not split on marriage lines, with married and single women agreeing in equal percentages.

Passion vs. 9/11

By a nearly two-to-one margin (40% to 23%) women pick producer Mel Gibson’s “The Passion of the Christ” as a film they’d like every American to see, over filmmaker Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11.” Moore does run ahead of Gibson with his target audience, those aged 18-29, where “Fahrenheit 9/11” bested “The Passion of the Christ” by a 35% to 31% margin. The numbers become even more stark when the question is considered using the marriage gap. A majority (52%) of single women pick “Fahrenheit 9/11” over the 31% who choose “The Passion.” This trend reverses among married women, however, who opt for “The Passion” over “Fahrenheit 9/11” by a 40% to 17% margin.

[/ QUOTE ]